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With the 59th Super Bowl champion set to be crowned on Feb. 9, so too will another Super Bowl MVP. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Super Bowl LIX MVP prediction and pick.
Super Bowl LIX will feature the two-time defending champion, Kansas City Chiefs (17-2), looking to three-peat against the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3). The game is a rematch of their meeting at Super Bowl LVII, one the Chiefs won 38-35. If Kansas City prevails, they will become the first team in NFL history to claim three consecutive Vince Lombard Trophies.
To make their fifth Super Bowl in the last six years, the Chiefs took out the Buffalo Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship Game. Likewise, the Eagles earned the rematch with a dominant 55-23 win over the Washington Commanders in the NFC title game.
Super Bowl MVP History
Unsurprisingly, the winning team's quarterback has historically dominated the Super Bowl MVP award, earning it 55 percent of the time. The honor has been given to a player on the winning team in all but one season. Dallas Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley is the only recipient whose team did not win the championship.
The Super Bowl MVP has also been an offensive award; just nine of the 58 winners were defensive players. Von Miller is the last non-offensive player to receive the honor, doing so with the Denver Broncos in 2016.
Here are the Chiefs-Eagles NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Super Bowl LIX MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes: +120
Saquon Barkley: +250
Jalen Hurts: +370
Travis Kelce: +1400
Xavier Worthy: +3100
A.J. Brown: +3500
Marquise Brown: +6500
DeVonta Smith: +6500
Kareem Hunt: +6500
Chris Jones: +6500
How to Watch Super Bowl LIX
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
TV: FOX
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite and first option in anyone's mind. He has claimed the previous two awards and won it in all three of the Chiefs' recent Super Bowl victories. Without a true bonafide stud at either running back or receiver, Kanas City's offensive success is mostly spread around, leaving no one to credit other than Mahomes.
While placing an MVP bet on Mahomes is boring and semi-risky, there are reasons to believe he will receive the honor again. The quarterback doubled as Kansas City's top rushing threat down the stretch of the season. There is a more than likely chance he adds a rushing score to his passing total that could easily give him more jewelry. If the Chiefs win, and he claims another Super Bowl MVP, he will be the first player to do so in NFL history.
Final Super Bowl MVP Prediction & Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+120)
Saquon Barkley Super Bowl MVP Odds
If the Eagles win, Saquon Barkley will be a massive part of it. If there were MVP awards given to each playoff game, he would have earned all three of Philadelphia's preluding postseason victories. Barkley has been the engine of the offense all season, but that has only heightened in the playoffs.
With nagging injuries to the Eagles' offensive line, the “tush push” has not been as frequent of a weapon as in years past. That opens the door for more goal-line touches and scoring opportunities for Barkley, on top of his every-down playmaking ability. The Chiefs have been disciplined all year, but Barkley is a one-of-a-kind threat. One missed tackle is all it takes for him to create a highlight. As long as he remains above 2-1, he is the Eagles' best bet.
Final Super Bowl MVP Prediction & Pick: Saquon Barkley (+250)
A.J. Brown Super Bowl MVP Odds
A.J. Brown has not been a big part of the Eagles' offseason in the playoffs but has his best chance to produce in the Super Bowl. Philadelphia played from ahead for most of the postseason, giving Brown more time to read on the sideline as he was not called upon often. There will be a different story against the Chiefs.
Brown will have a tough one-on-one matchup with Trent McDuffie, who shadows at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. However, if he can win that matchup — which he did in Super Bowl LVII — he has the potential to post a gaudy stat line in a game that could easily turn into a shootout. Brown will face man coverage all game, which he posted the fifth-best target share against in the regular season. The current wide odds on Brown make him an intriguing low-risk, high-reward target.
Final Super Bowl MVP Prediction & Pick: A.J. Brown (+3500)
George Karlaftis Super Bowl MVP Odds
The best part about wagering on the Super Bowl MVP is taking a few long shots. If a defensive player wins the award, it will likely be on the Chiefs' side. Kansas City has leaned on its defense all season, and it would only be poetic for their hard-nosed, disciplined approach to make NFL history. If that is the case, look for George Karlaftis to be Steve Spagnuolo's biggest difference-maker.
As the Chiefs' leading edge rusher on the year, Karlaftis will match up with veteran stalwart Lane Johnson, who has been dealing with ongoing injuries, for most of the game. Generating backfield pressure will be one of their keys to victory, starting with Karlaftis. His biggest priority, however, will be containing the edge against Barkley. The athletic Karlaftis has been stout in that area all season. A couple of timely tackles for loss and one or two big-time sacks could give the Purdue alum the edge.
Final Super Bowl MVP Prediction & Pick: George Karlaftis (+14000)
Trent McDuffie Super Bowl MVP Odds
Even more than Karlaftis, McDuffie would be the perfect recipient of the MVP as the poster child of the Chiefs' defense. He will deal with Brown all game long, but the winner of that individual matchup will have an impact on the end result, perhaps more than any other. With the way Brown beat him in Super Bowl LVII, McDuffie has conceivably awaited this rematch more than any other player.
McDuffie has yet to record an interception in the playoffs but has eight tackles and three pass breakups in Kansas City's two postseason games. Whenever Hurts needs to make a big play with his arm, he is going to look in Brown's direction. McDuffie will be there, and it will either be him or Brown making the big play. At 300-1 odds, he is worth even the slightest shot.
Final Super Bowl MVP Prediction & Pick: Trent McDuffie (+30000)
