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UFC 313 has finally reached its apex at T-Mobile Arena as we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the headlining Main Event. The Light Heavyweight Championship is on the line as Brazil's Alex Pereira defends against No. 1 contender Magomed Ankalaev of Russia. Check the UFC odds series for our Pereira-Ankalaev prediction and pick.
Alex Pereira (12-2) has gone 9-1 since 2021 en route to become a champion in both the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Division. After winning rematches against Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, he most recently dominated Khalil Rountree Jr. for his third title defense. He'll look to continue chasing history with a win here. The champion stands 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach.
Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1) has gone 11-1-1-1 inside the UFC since 2018 and will see his second title fight. The first was marred by the ‘draw' verdict for the vacant fight against Jan Blachowicz, but he's notched back-to-back wins over Johnny Walker and Aleksandar Rakic and has been the undeniable “next man up.” Ankalaev stands 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 313 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 313 Odds: Alex Pereira-Magomed Ankalaev Odds
Alex Pereira: -115
Magomed Ankalaev: -105
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
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Why Alex Pereira Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Khalil Rountree Jr. – KO (uppercuts, R4)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO
Alex Pereira is coming off what could have been his most complete performance in the UFC to-date. He faced a dangerous opponent and vicious finisher in Khalil Rountree, but managed to systematically pick him apart for three rounds while finishing the job in the fourth. Pereira never felt any real heat from Rountree and managed to sit back on his punches while evading most offense coming back his way. The entire fight was one long highlight reel of precise punching and world-class technique from Alex Pereira.
The biggest threat in this fight for the champion will be Ankalaev's ability as a wrestler and being the most active grappler he's had to face thus far. Pereira still boasts a 70% takedown defense and his constant work with Glover Teixeira certainly has him prepared for the grappling of Ankalaev. Watch for the patented low leg kick of Pereira to be a massive focal point during this fight as Ankalaev has struggled to defend his legs against active kickers in the past.
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Why Magomed Ankalaev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Aleksandar Rakic – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-0-1-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO
Magomed Ankalaev will get another crack at the light heavyweight strap after running through Johnny Walker and dominating Aleksandar Rakic with some newly-refined striking techniques. He didn't attempt a single takedown and was simply better with his lead jab as he busted up Rakic from the start. Ankalaev has looked particularly sharp over the last two fights, but it'll be interesting to see how his improved striking stacks up against what many people consider the best pure striker of all time. Nevertheless, Ankalaev has hit his prime and is more than ready for this opportunity.
Ankalaev will have the benefit of knowing his chin has been tested less than Pereira's over the last few years and he's more than capable of taking a clean shot from any opponent. It will be interesting to see if he moves towards his wrestling in this one knowing he has a significant advantage over Pereira in that category. However, it wouldn't come as a surprise if he decided to stand and trade with Pereira, trusting his chin to carry him through.
Final Alex Pereira-Magomed Ankalaev Prediction & Pick
While Magomed Ankalaev is a dangerous opponent to Alex Pereira given his ability to control the fight with his wrestling, this line should be wider in favor of Alex Pereira. Despite Ankalaev's improved striking, I believe Pereira's experience against Israel Adesanya and his lifelong of striking certainly has him levels above his opponent in this one.
Furthermore, Ankalaev greatly struggled to defend the leg kicks against Jan Blachowicz during his first title shot and Pereira's leg kicks have been known to hurt opponents early into fights. I expect the kicks to play a massive role in this fight as Pereira will start dissecting Ankalaev's striking stance from the first round.
Aside from that, the only way I see Ankalaev taking this fight is if he's able to land several takedowns and work damaging ground-and-pound on his opponent. I don't see Alex Pereira getting held on the ground for too long and this should take place primarily on the feet.
For our final prediction, we have to side with the champion Alex Pereira to get the win as we're getting him for a phenomenal price. His striking may be the best on the planet and I don't expect Ankalaev to have an answer for the leg kicks. And still.
Final Alex Pereira-Magomed Ankalaev Prediction & Pick: Alex Pereira (-115)
