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After a dominant non-conference run, Tennessee (13-0) will begin SEC play on Saturday with a high-profile clash against Arkansas (11-2). It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Arkansas-Tennessee prediction and pick.
As the top-ranked team in the country, Tennessee is one of just three undefeated teams remaining. The Volunteers have been arguably the most consistent team in the country early on, winning all but one game by double digits. They are coming off a 67-52 win over Norfolk State on New Year's Eve.
Arkansas entered the year with high expectations after acquiring John Calipari in the offseason and has impressed with its opportunities thus far. Despite the two losses, they enter SEC play on a six-game win streak, the most recent being a 30-point victory over Oakland.
Here are the Arkansas-Tennessee College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Arkansas-Tennessee Odds
Arkansas: +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +520
Tennessee: -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -750
Over: 143.5 (-110)
Under: 143.5 (-110)
How to Watch Arkansas vs. Tennessee
Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread/Win
In a classic battle between two defensive-minded teams, the one with the better offense tends to prevail. On paper, that would actually be Arkansas. The Razorbacks' effective field goal percentage of 58.3 percent is the 10th-best in the nation, boosted by their 51.5 percent hit rate from the field. Their 30.9 field goals per game also rank 10th in the country.
Tennessee's defense is focused on limiting three-pointers, which is not within Arkansas' typical game plan. The Razorbacks score just 29.4 percent of their points from deep, which is 236th in the country. Only two players average double figures, but all nine who play more than 10 minutes per game contribute six or more points per outing.
As good as Tennessee is defensively — and they are elite on that end — it is prone to occasional struggles on offense. Everything runs through its dynamic backcourt of seniors Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier. Together, they score 31.3 points and provide 9.6 assists per game. Lanier leads the way with 19.6 points per contest.
When neither guard can find a rhythm, Tennessee's offense can be tough to come by. They went the first three and a half minutes against Illinois without scoring and ended up gutting out a two-point win.
While Zeigler is among the country's leaders in assists, he accounts for half of Tennessee's assisted baskets. The team averages just 16.7 assists per game, relying heavily on pick-and-roll sets and isolation scoring from Lanier. Arkansas only allows 13.5 unassisted field goals per game.
Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tennessee would love nothing more than for this game to turn into a defensive slugfest, a style in which it is arguably the best team in the country. The Volunteers rank in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category and lead the country in opponent three-point percentage (24.6 percent) and second-half points allowed (29.2). They trail only Houston in overall defensive rating.
As noted above, Arkansas bases its offense on quality shot selection and points in the paint. Their 10th-best effective field goal percentage will be put to the test, as Tennessee's opponents average a mere 40.6 percent effective field goal, the second-fewest in Division I.
Although Tennessee's offensive capabilities have been limited, they have typically excelled at them. Lanier and Zeigler will run pick-and-roll sets all afternoon, an area in which Calipari has specifically acknowledged his team's struggles.
For what it's worth, Tennessee and Arkansas have two common opponents during their non-conference schedules — Baylor and Illinois. The Volunteers went 2-0 against them while Arkansas went 0-2. Overall, the Razorbacks are just 4-8-1 ATS, including 1-2 as an underdog.
Final Arkansas-Tennessee Prediction & Pick
With both teams averaging over 80 points per game, a total of 141.5 seems low at first glance but is completely justified. Tennessee, in particular, has gone 5-8 to O/U in 2024-2025 with Arkansas going 6-7. Both teams have top-25 defensive ratings on KenPom. Had it not been for a few slip-ups, Arkansas would be ranked even higher.
In just their second matchup with a ranked opponent, Tennessee has mostly feasted on inferior opponents. In their four games that closed with less than a 20-point spread, the under has hit at a 100 percent rate.
Tennessee is the superior team and should win this game, particularly at home. But with the game trending toward a defensive struggle, it is hard to see them pulling away by more than 11 points.
Final Arkansas-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Arkansas +11.5, Under 143.5 (-110)
