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Aryna Sabalenka plays Mirra Andreeva in the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sabalenka-Andreeva prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sabalenka-Andreeva.
Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two Australian Opens, and she won her first U.S. Open last year. She is hard to ignore or dispute as the player to beat in Melbourne this January fortnight. Sabalenka hasn't looked unbeatable in the first week of this tournament. She did fall behind 5-2 in the second set of an early-round match over the course of the week, but she fought back to win that set. She is 6-0 in sets, which — even with her occasional wobbles — represents a good start to this title defense Down Under. She came close to losing one set a few times (also in the third round against a good player, Clara Tauson), but she never came close to losing a match. Everyone is giving Sabalenka their best shot, and the top seed has had all the answers thus far.
Mirra Andreeva could be the future of women's tennis. Just 17 years old, the Russian is in the Round of 16 at a major after having reached the Roland Garros semifinals last year. Her future is bright, and she — like Coco Gauff a few years ago — is building a reputation as a teenage player who is going to be extremely tough to beat and who will fight for every point, no matter the scoreboard. Andreeva is an excellent competitor, gritty beyond her years. She won a 10-8 supertiebeaker to survive her second-round match earlier this week, and she won her third-round match in three sets. Some younger athletes melt when extended in a prolonged battle, but Andreeva (again, like Gauff over the past few years) has relished the additional combat. She eats it up.
Notably, in last year's French Open quarterfinals, Andreeva was able to take advantage of Sabalenka's on-court illness. Sabalenka did not feel well and clearly looked hampered, but Andreeva had to be tough enough to pounce on the opportunity. One has to wonder, when looking at the betting odds for this match, if that French Open quarterfinal result is being priced into this too much, or just right. It's not as though Andreeva beat a full-strength version of Sabalenka. Now we might get to see what it's like when these two meet in a big tournament. That's why this match is so compelling. You know Sabalenka will want revenge for Paris, but Andreeva might have some new tricks up her sleeve to retain the upper hand.
Here are the Sabalenka-Andreeva Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Sabalenka-Andreeva Odds
Game Spread
Sabalenka -4.5 (+102)
Andreeva +4.5 (-132)
Moneyline
Sabalenka -300
Andreeva +240
To Win First Set
Sabalenka -230
Andreeva +182
Total Games In Match
Over 21.5 (-110)
Under 21.5 (-120)
Total Games Won
Sabalenka over 12.5 (-108)
Sabalenka under 12.5 (-124)
Andreeva over 10.5 (-110)
Andreeva under 10.5 (-120)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: TBA
TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is going to be a lot better than she was against Mirra Andreeva last year at the French Open. If she's fit, she will prevail, probably with enough margin in each set to cover the 4.5-game spread. 6-3, 7-5 is a Sabalenka cover, and that's a decent guess for a final score.
Why Mirra Andreeva Will Win
It's hard to ignore how good a fighter Mirra Andreeva has already become. She might not win the match, but she will keep each set very close. 6-4, 6-4 Sabalenka is nevertheless a scoreline in which Andreeva covers the spread.
Final Sabalenka-Andreeva Prediction & Pick
Sabalenka over total games won is the play here, because if Sabalenka has to win seven games in one set, she covers even if she wins in straight sets. If she is taken to three sets, she will almost certainly win over 12.5 even if she doesn't win the match outright. Basically, you're betting Sabalenka will win a lot of games but won't cruise to an easy straight-set win. You offer yourself some wiggle room.
Final Sabalenka-Andreeva Prediction & Pick: Sabalenka over 12.5 games won
