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The Houston Astros visit the St. Louis Cardinals in game two of this series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Red Sox prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Houston has now lost three of their last four and seven of their last ten overall. It was another loss last night, as they fell 4-2 to the Cardinals. The Cardinals tagged Framber Valdez for four runs, which tied for the most earned runs he has given up in a start this year. Valdez went six innings in the game, giving up eight hits and three walks while striking out six. On the other side, Jordan Montgomery went 6.2 innings, giving up just two runs, one earned. He struck out six as well and picked up his fifth win of the season. While the Astros did get seven hits last night, they struggled to get runners into scoring position. Last night the Astros has just three at-bats with runners in scoring position, and they recorded one hit in those at-bats.
Here are the Astros-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Cardinals Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-210)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+172)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How To Watch Astros vs. Cardinals
TV: ATTH/BSMW
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:45 PM ET/ 4:45 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Astros' offense has been fairly average all year long. They are tied for 14th in runs scored this year, while sitting 18th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, and 16th in slugging. A lot of their offense has come from Yordan Alvarez, who leads the team in home runs and RBIs on the year. Alvarez is still out with an oblique injury though, and it does not seem like he will be back for this one. The Astros will have to lean on their pitching which has been so good this year. Houston's pitching is tied for second in the majors in quality starts, while sitting tenth in opponent batting average, ninth in WHIP, and leading the league in ERA.
The Astros will hope to keep getting quality pitching out of Christian Javier today. He is 7-1 on the season with a 3.25 ERA. In May he was amazing, pitching 30 innings and giving up just eight runs. He won four starts that month with his 2.40 ERA. Since then he has been hit and miss. In two starts this month he has gone six innings and given up one or fewer runs. The other two starts saw him give up four runs, including last time out. He went just 2.1 innings against the Mets, throwing 82 pitches and giving up four runs.
On the offensive end, the Astros will hope to keep getting solid production out of Alex Bregman. Over the last week, he has hit .333 while driving in seven runs. He has been an RBI machine this month. While Bregman is hitting just .256 on the month, he has driven in 20 runs. He has also scored ten times this month with the help of three doubles, a triple, and four home runs. Kyle Tucker is also having a fairly good month. He drove in one of the two runs last night, giving him ten on the month. Tucker is hitting .287, but with 11 walks this month, his OBP is at .364. That has led to him scoring 16 times this month.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
Much like the Astros, the Cardinal's offense is fairly average. They are 12th in the majors in runs scored while sitting 11th in OBP, 15th in batting average, and ninth in slugging. This has been led by the combination of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arendao. Arendado has been playing well this year but knows they need to do better with runners in scoring positions if they are going to win. Arenado has been batting his fair share of runs this year. He is first on the team in RBIs and tied for 14th in the majors with 51. Arenado had another RBI last night, which gives him 15 for the month. He is also hitting .296 this month with a .348 OBP. Arenado has hit six home runs on the month as well, but not one since June 18th.
Paul Goldschmidt is the team leader in batting average, sitting at .283. He is down slightly this month, hitting just .267. Meanwhile, he has driven in 14 runs and hit three home runs and three doubles. He has scored a fair amount, scoring 11 times this month while getting on base at a .326 clip. Lars Nootbar is also starting to get back into a groove since coming back to the lineup. After going hitless in his first two games, he has hits in each of the last three. He got his first RBI of the month yesterday and will be looking to keep the hitting going.
While the two offensive units are similar between the Astros and Cardinals, the pitching is not. The Cardinals are 25th in the majors in quality starts. They are 29th in opponent batting average, 26th in WHIP, and 20th in ERA. Miles Mikolas takes the mound for them today with his 4-5 record, 4.23 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. He has lost each of his last four starts while struggling in June. So far this month he has pitched 24 innings and given up 15 runs. That gives him a 5.63 EAR for the month. He did have his best start of the month last time out. Mikolas went seven innings and gave up just two runs with a home run. He did give up eight hits though, and it was the fourth time this month he had given up seven or more hits in a game.
Final Astros-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
While the Astros' offense has not been producing a ton, neither has the Cardinals. The big difference today is the two pitchers on the mound. Mikolas has not been good this month. After having a great month in May, he has fallen apart. He has already given up seven more runs this month in two fewer starts. Javier has been solid almost all year long. Except for two rough starts this month, he has been solid. The Cardinals do not have enough offense to make it a third rough start and the Astros get the win.
Final Astros-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Astros +1.5 (-210)
