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It is the quarterfinals of the UCL as Barcelona faces Dortmund. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Barcelona-Dortmund prediction and pick.
Barcelona went 6-1-1 in the league face of the UCL, which got them a bye into the round of 16. In the round of 16, they would face Benfica. The first game was tight, but Barcelona would come away with a 1-0 win over Benfica on the road. Then, at home, they would win 3-1, to take a 4-1 victory on aggregate. Meanwhile, Dortmund was 5-0-3 in the league phase, which gave them a first-round matchup with Sporting CP. They would win that matchup 3-0 on aggregate. They would then face Lille in the next round. Lille and Dortmund would draw at one in the first leg, but Dortmund would come away with a 2-1 win in the second leg to advance on aggregate.
Here are the Barcelona-Dortmund Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Barcelona-Dortmund Odds
Barcelona: -290
Dortmund: +700
Draw: +440
Over 3.5 goals: +114
Under 3.5 goals: -138
How to Watch Barcelona vs. Dortmund
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Barcelona Will Win
Barcelona has scored very well this year. They have scored in 44 of 46 games so far this year, scoring 3.04 goals per game and scoring 140 goals over 46 games. They have also scored 32 goals in the ten UCL games so far. That is good for 3.2 goals per game so far in UCL play. Further, they scored in every UCL game, including all five games at home. They have scored 17 goals in their five home games so far, good for 3.4 per game at home.
It is the combination of Robert Lewandowski and Raphina that has led the way for Barcelona so far. Lewandowski has scored 25 goals and two assists in La Liga play, while he has nine goals in UCL play. Raphinha has scored 11 times with five assists in UCL play, while he has scored 13 goals with eight assists in domestic league play. Further, Lamine Yamal has been solid this year for Barcelona. He has three goals and three assists in UCL play, while he has six goals and 11 assists in La Liga play this year.
Barcelona has been solid on defense so far in UCL play. They have allowed 14 goals in UCL play so far, good for just 1.4 per game. Still, they have been dominant on defense at home. In four home games in UCL play, they have conceded just four goals. They also have two clean sheets at home in UCL play.
Why Dortmund Will Win
Dortmund has scored well this year, scoring in 34 of 41 games overall. They have scored 80 goals in those 41 games, good for 1.95 goals per game. They have also been great in UCL play, scoring in 11 of 12 fixtures so far this year. Further, they have scored 28 goals this year, good for 2.33 goals per game. Dortmund has been solid on the road. They have scored in all six games on the road in UCL play, scoring 14 goals in the process. That is good for 2.33 goals per game.
Serhou Guirassy has led the way for Dortmund this year. He has been dominant in UCL play, scoring ten goals with four assists this year. Further, he has 14 goals and an assist in Bundesliga play. Meanwhile, Jamie Gittens has been solid. In Bundesliga play, he has seven goals and three assists on an expected goal total of just 3.1. Gittens has scored four goals on an expected 1.6 goals in UCL play. Finally, Karim Adeyemi has also been solid in UCL play. Adeyemi has scored five times with an assist in UCL play.
Dortmund has been solid on defense this year, giving up 57 goals in their 41 total fixtures. That is good for 1.39 goals per game. In UCL play, they have allowed just 14 goals, good for 1.17 per game. Five of those 14 were scored by Real Madrid. They have also been solid on defense on the road. They have given up eight goals on the road this year, but have three clean sheets, with five of the seven goals coming in that Real Madrid game.
Final Barcelona-Dortmund Prediction & Pick
Both teams come into this game with some bright sports. Barcelona has been solid on offense but can concede goals. Dortmund has been solid on defense but had that one horrible game against Real Madrid. Still, this game will be about the scoring prowess of Barcelona. They have not lost since the first UCL game against Monaco in the league phase. Since then, they have had four games scoring four or more goals. Dortmund will find the back of the net as well, which makes the best play here on the total. Take the over in this one.
Final Barcelona-Dortmund Prediction & Pick: Over 3.5 (+114)
