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Boston College visits Army in non-conference play. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Boston College-Army prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Boston College enters the game at 2-3 on the season. After a disappointing loss to Northern Illinois to start the season, they rebounded with a win over Holy Cross. Still, the win was closer than expected. The next week it was almost an upset, but Boston College fell to Florida State 31-29. They followed that with a loss to Louisville, but then a three-point win over Virginia. It was a big comeback, down 21-7 at the half, but a field goal with 2:11 left in the game gave, the lead and the win.
Army enters the game at 2-2 on the year. It was a rough start to the year, losing a lead in the fourth quarter to UL Monroe to fall 17-13. After a win against Delaware State and then another against UTSA, they would face Syracuse. Army had the lead at half 10-3, but Syracuse made adjustments. They would end up winning 29-16.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Boston College-Army Odds
Boston College: +2.5 (-102)
Army: -2.5 (-120)
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
How to Watch Boston College vs. Army Week 6
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (click for free trial)
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
Why Boston College Will Cover The Spread
For Boston College, it is all about Thomas Castellanos. He had a rough week last week, throwing for just 183 yards and two touchdowns, but with two interceptions. Still, he has been solid this year. On the season he is 83-143 with 1,092 yards and ten touchdowns. He has made eight big-time throws according to PFF. Castellanos does have four touchdowns, and eight other turnover-worthy passes though. Castellanos has had to deal with pressure this year. He has been pressured 46 times on 169 dropbacks. This has led to 11 sacks and 14 scrambles for positive yardage.
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Rushing this year has been a big part of the came for Castellanos. He has just 14 scramble yards this year, but he has 392 total rushing yards and three scores. He did have his first fumble of the season last week though. Castellanos leads the team in rushing this year, but Kye Robichaux has been solid as well. He has run for 203 yards on 50 attempts this year. He has two scores and has forced 11 missed tackles. Robichaux is also doing good work after first contact, with 2.7 yards after contact this year.
The biggest thing for Boston College to win this game is going to be a strong run defense. They are currently ranked 59th in the nation in rushing yards per game, allowing 136.8 yards per game on the ground. They have close to a 50 percent success rate against the run this year. While they have missed just 18 tackles, the issue is getting a push. All three of their top tacklers in the run game have an average depth of tackle of 3.5 yards downfield or further. Two of the top three are five yards downfield.
Why Army Will Cover The Spread
Army is all about the running game. Hayden Reed comes into the game with 159 yards on the grounds this year with a touchdown. He has been getting solids blocking, with almost two yards before first contact this year. Meanwhile, Jakobi Buchanan has scored three times on the ground this year. He has just 2.9 yards per carry, but he has been the yardage-up-the-gut runner for this team. The top rusher on the team is Bryson Daily. The quarterback has 305 yards on the ground this year with three scores. He is averaging over four yards per carry and has forced 15 missed tackles. He does have two fumbles this year though.
As a user, he has been fair, but not great. Daily has completed just 29 of his 60 pass attempts this year for 591 yards. He does have five passing touchdowns this year, but he also has four interceptions and five turnover-worthy passes. Still, the pass can be a big threat for Army. Daily is averaging a depth of target 12.1 yards downfield when he throws this year. Isaiah Alston has been the big play threat for Army. He has brought in just nine of 20 targets, but that is for 266 yards. He is averaging 29.6 yards per reception this year, with 15.8 yards after the catch. Noah Short is also averaging 18.9 yards per catch this year, and scored twice.
To beat Boston College, Army has to slow down Thomas Castellanos. First, that is done in the run game. Army has been great against the run this year. Chris Frey has three stops for offensive failures this year, with an average depth of tackles just a yard downfield. Austin Hill has seven stops for offensive failures, with an average depth of tackle .7 yards downfield. He has missed five tackles though, something that cannot happen in this game. Army also needs to put good pressure on Castellanos. This year they have just eight sacks with 42 quarterback pressures. They need to get home more often if they are going to cover in this game.
Final Boston College-Army Prediction & Pick
Army likes to keep games low-scoring. In the four games this year, just one game had gone over 50 points. Army is also good as a favorite. In the last six games in which they were favored, they won in five of them. Boston College has played solid in just one game this year, and that was the loss to Florida State. They have struggled in each of the other games, including being upset twice this season, plus almost being upset against Holy Cross. Boston College has struggled with run-heavy teams, such as Northern Illinois and Holy Cross.
With Boston College having a middle-of-the-road run defense and Army being able to pound the rock, they will get run over a lot in this game. When they cheat on the run, they do not have the safety or corners to play the man coverage needed to stop the big play. Bryson Daily needs to hit one or two of those big plays and he will.
Final Boston College-Army Prediction & Pick: Army -2.5 (-120) and Under 49.5 (-110)
