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UFC Louisville is packed with exciting fights and we'll be bringing you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Ultimate Fighter winner Brad Katona will be taking on Louisiana's own Jesse Butler. Both men are looking to rebound after recent losses and build momentum with a win. Check out our UFC odds series for our Katona-Butler prediction and pick.
Brad Katona (13-3) has gone 3-3 during his UFC career. He won The Ultimate Fighter Season 31 over Cody Gibson and shined as the most consistent fighter on the roster. This is his second crack at the UFC and he's made the most of his opportunity. After his last loss to Garrett Armfield, he'll be looking to rebound with a decision win. Katona stands 5'6″ with a 64.5-inch reach.
Jesse Butler (12-5) lost his only appearance in the UFC so far when he was finished by Jim Miller during his debut last year. It was a tough wake-up call upon his entrance to the UFC and he'll be in another unlikely position, looking for a win as a massive underdog. Still, he's fresh into this game and a win over Katona would greatly improve his stock. Butler stands 5'10” with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: Brad Katona-Jesse Butler Odds
Brad Katona: -625
Jesse Butler: +450
Over 2.5 rounds: -240
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
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Why Brad Katona Will Win
Without a doubt, Brad Katona was the most consistent fighter on his season of TUF. While Cody Gibson was a worthy opponent in the finale, Katona knew that he had to stick to his game plan all season and that it would result in a UFC contract. He's not the most exciting fighter when it comes to finishing bouts or stunning opponents with his striking, but Katona is a model of consistency when it comes to his wrestling and control within the cage. He's very good about clinching with opponents and negating their offense along the cageside.
Brad Katona is the much more defensively sound fighter in this matchup and the betting odds are indicative of such. His path to victory is clear as he should be able to work his way inside and control this fight on the ground. Still, he's giving up some size to Butler and will have to be mindful of the reach, but it wouldn't be the first time Katona thrived as the smaller fighter. Look for Brad Katona to stay on an even trajectory throughout this fight and don't underestimate his ability to take a shot.
Why Jesse Butler Will Win
Jesse Butler didn't have the debut he was looking for as Jim Miller stunned and sat him down with an uppercut shot. Butler is a traditional kickboxer with a longer frame, meaning he should be successful against shorter fighters like Katona and Miller if he's able to create separation in the striking. Katona will have a similar physical build to Butler's last opponent, so Butler will need to work on his range and be mindful of the striking distance throughout this fight.
The big advantage here for Jesse Butler will be his height and reach over Katona. He also has eight of his wins by way of submission and is very effective at using his long limbs to tighten submissions. With how much Katona favors the single and double leg takedowns, Butler could see some openings to lock a guillotine and make this a scary fight for his opponent.
Final Brad Katona-Jesse Butler Prediction & Pick
This should be an interesting fight given the differing styles from both men. Brad Katona is very defensive and will use his spotless technique to wins rounds off control time and activity. Jesse Butler is much more volatile in his approach but it can often result in an exciting finish for him if he can find a submission.
This fight will come down to whoever can control the striking distance from the opening bell. Jesse Butler will find success if he can keep Katona at the end of his punches and frustrate him on the entries. Katona will find success from getting into close quarters with Butler and not giving him any room to breathe.
Ultimately, you have to like the cardio from Brad Katona in this fight and I expect him to fight towards a decision here. Jesse Butler is a dangerous opponent, but we really haven't seen anything from him to indicate he will be able to overcome this deficit. Let's ride with Brad Katona as the betting favorite and the pick to make here.
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Final Brad Katona-Jesse Butler Prediction & Pick: Brad Katona (-625); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-240)
