Subscribe
Follow Us
We're back with our final betting prediction and pick for UFC Mexico as the Main Event features top contenders in the Flyweight (125) Division. Former champion and No. 2-ranked Brandon Moreno will enter a home crowd against No. 8 Steve Erceg of Australia. Check the UFC odds series for our Moreno-Erceg prediction and pick.
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) has gone 10-5-2 inside the UFC since 2016 while becoming champion on two separate occasions. He lost the belt to Alexandre Pantoja and dropped to Brandon Royval immediately after, but he just outclassed Amir Albazi in a unanimous decision and is ready to make another case for a title rematch. Moreno stands 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach.
Steve Erceg (12-3) has gone 3-2 under the promotion since 2023. Entering the UFC with three-straight wins, he dropped his first title shot to current champ Pantoja. He then lost to Kai Kara-France in his most recent bout and will need to prove himself in what will be the toughest fight of his career. Erceg stands 5-foot-8 with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Brandon Moreno-Steve Erceg Odds
Brandon Moreno: -245
Steve Erceg: +200
Over 4.5 rounds: -238
Under 4.5 rounds: +180
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Brandon Moreno Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Amir Albazi – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 11 SUB
Brandon Moreno has looked consistent over his last two fights given the Brandon Royval fight could have easily gone his way in a close split decision. Still, he put on an absolute masterclass against Amir Albazi and negated three of four takedown attempts from a dominant grappler. He also managed 132 total strikes to Albazi's 63, looking extremely fluid and comfortable on the feet. It's impressive that Moreno continues to grow as a fighter and during his last bout, he displayed some newfound patience with his striking while looking extremely accurate as well.
Moreno will be dealing with a much more explosive opponent here in Erceg and the knockout will also be a threat when facing him. Moreno is extremely defensive with his boxing and doesn't typically let opponents string together too many clean shots. Still, he's been caught in the past and while he's never been finished in his UFC career, he'll need to once again close the distance with caution and fight a smart bout.
Why Steve Erceg Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Kai Kara-France – TKO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Steve Erceg was on a crash course to the Flyweight title with three-straight wins, but his title fight against Pantoja was evident that there are levels to the UFC and some wins have to come with experience. His last showing was disappointing as Kara-France hit him with a flush right hook and finished the fight on the ground. Despite this, Erceg will not change the way he fights and he's always intent on giving the fans a great show. Expect him to start fast once again as he looks to throw Moreno off his calm rhythm.
Steve Erceg's greatest advantage during this fight will be his speed. Moreno tends to lean back and settle into a striking groove, while Erceg is constantly on the balls of his feet bouncing in and out of distance. His quickness moving within range could be his best weapon in disrupting the timing of Moreno. If he's able to be aggressive anytime Moreno tries to settle in, it'll push a pace Erceg is more comfortable with as he tries to counter.
Final Brandon Moreno-Steve Erceg Prediction & Pick
This is set to be an extremely high-level fight atop the Flyweight Division. Both men have been in this spot before, but Moreno has seen careers worth of title fights and will be in championship form heading into this fight. Erceg has floundered against some top-ranked opponents as of late, but his talent and skills are undeniable as he needs just one signature win against someone elite.
Erceg could seriously cause a problem during this fight if he's able to time his lead jab just fight and disrupt the forward pressure of Moreno. Moreno fights very much within his own rhythm and Erceg has all the speed to make it a frustration night for him.
The grappling may negate as both men are extremely skilled on the ground, but we give Brandon Moreno the slight edge simply for his body of work against Deiveson Figueiredo. I think his ability to game plan and adjust during the fight will be the biggest difference for Moreno as he remains defensive for the most part.
At this point, Brandon Moreno is still levels above the competition and while Erceg poses a unique challenge, it's ultimately Moreno that gets it done in front of his country's crowd. Let's roll with him by decision.
Final Brandon Moreno-Steve Erceg Prediction & Pick: Brandon Moreno (-245); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-238)
