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The Atlanta Braves hit the road to take on the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Braves-Phillies Projected Starters
Charlie Morton vs. Cristopher Sanchez
Charlie Morton (7-7) with a 4.24 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 131.2 innings pitched, 133K/48BB, .252 oBA
Last Start: at Washington Nationals: No Decision, 5.2 innings, 8 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 11 starts, 4.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 60.1 innings pitched, 63K/19BB, .236 oBA
Cristopher Sanchez (9-9) with a 3.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 146.1 innings pitched, 116K/35BB, .265 oBA
Last Start: at Atlanta Braves: Loss, 6 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 13 starts, 2.18 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 86.2 innings pitched, 76K/13BB, .217 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: +128
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -152
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Charlie Morton has had one bad start this month, but his other four were good. His bad start saw him allow eight runs in less than three innings. However, in his other four starts combined, Morton has allowed just five earned runs in 23 innings pitched. He has also struck out 27 while allowing 21 hits in those 23 innings. The Braves have won all four of those starts, as well. If Morton can have another start like any of those four, the Braves will win this game, as well.
Atlanta has not been the same team this season as last, but they have played well against the Phillies. In the first nine games, the Braves have been able to win six of them. One thing have done really well against Philadelphia is swing the bats. They are batting almost .280 against the Phillies, and they have an OPS of .848. Through their first nine games against Philadelphia, the Braves have scored 50 runs. That is 5.5 runs per game, which makes it very easy to win. In fact, the Braves are 45-13 when they score at least five runs this season.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
Cristopher Sanchez has pitched well this season, and he has been much better at home. Both of his complete games have come at Citizens Bank Ballpark. His last home start was a complete game against the Washington Nationals. Sanchez is coming off a start against the Braves, and it went pretty well. He threw six innings, allowed just three runs, but did give up nine hits. This game against the Braves is at home, so I would expect less hits allowed, and the same or less runs allowed for Sanchez in this game. If he can continue his good pitching in Philadelphia, the Phillies will win this game.
The Phillies have yet to face Morton this season, but it would not be shocking if they got to him in this game. Philadelphia is fourth in batting average, eighth in slugging percentage, and they do a great job taking walks. Morton allows quite a few loud hits, and he has a high walk rate. The Phillies should be able to take some walks, and then hit the ball hard when he puts it in the zone. The Phillies just need to score a couple runs to beat the Braves in this one.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
It has become very hard to bet against Cristopher Sanchez when he is pitching at home. That is why I will not being it. I will take the Phillies to win this game straight up.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-152)
