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The Atlanta Braves will continue their four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. It's a National League East battle as we share our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.
Braves-Phillies Projected Starters
Max Fried vs. Zack Wheeler
Max Fried (8-7) with a 3.50 ERA
Last Start: Fried went five innings in his last outing, allowing three runs, one earned, four hits, and striking out seven in a win over the Minnesota Twins.
2024 Road Splits: Fried has been better on the road, going 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA.
Zack Wheeler (12-6) with a 2.74 ERA
Last Start: Wheeler went six innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs, six hits, striking out six, and walking two in a no-decision against the Houston Astros. It was nearly identical to his previous start.
2024 Home Splits: Wheeler is slightly better at home, going 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA over 14 starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-166)
Moneyline: +128
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: -152
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-118)
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How to Watch Braves vs. Phillies
Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT
TV: FOX Sports
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves have jettisoned themselves back into the playoff race and came into the weekend clinging to the final wildcard spot in the NL. Moreover, they are attempting to steal the division from the Phillies but are still six games out. Their offense needs to do some work.
Marcell Ozuna is a triple-crown contender and leads the Braves in home runs and hits. Amazingly, he has been the only consistent force in the lineup and has a chance to finish with 45 home runs and 115 RBIs. While Matt Olson has not been as good as he was last season, he still came into the weekend with 25 home runs and 76 RBIs. Therefore, expect him to remain a threat at the plate. Austin Riley has also struggled this season, hitting below .260 and not even reaching 20 home runs by this point. Moreover, he is on pace for a career-low mark in home runs and RBIs based on average games.
Fried has struggled recently, with just one quality start in his past five outings. Ironically, the one quality start came on August 21 against the Phillies, when he went seven innings, allowing two earned runs and four hits. Fried is 4-5 with a 4.05 ERA over 22 career games against the Phillies. Therefore, he hopes to improve those numbers. When Fried exits, he will turn it over to the second-best bullpen in baseball. Raisel Iglesias is the closer and came into the weekend with a record of 4-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 28 saves in 31 chances.
The Braves will cover the spread if the offense can solve Wheeler and batter the baseball to give them an early lead. Then, they need Fried to hit his spots and locate his pitches.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies are the second-best team in the NL and will look to tighten the grip on their lead in the division. Ultimately, they need their offense to continue hitting the baseball.
Alec Bohm has been excellent at the plate. He leads the Phillies in hits and came into the weekend with 89 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber remains excellent, entering Friday with 28 home runs, 82 RBIs, and 88 runs. Therefore, expect him to be a force at the plate and a threat to clobber one into the seats in right field. Bryce Harper remains consistent at the plate. He came into the weekend batting .278 with 28 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 72 runs.
Wheeler has had five straight quality starts. Additionally, he is 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA over two starts against the Braves this season. Wheeler is 12-8 with a 3.07 ERA over 29 games against the Braves throughout his career. Now, he hopes to beat them again. When Wheeler finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 17th in baseball in team ERA. There is no established closer, as neither Jose Alvarado nor Jeff Hoffman have done enough to secure the job.
The Phillies will cover the spread if their bats can create scoring chances and big innings. Then, they need Wheeler to dominate the game to give his bullpen some breathing room.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Braves lead the season series 7-4, going 3-2 in Philadelphia. Moreover, they are 8-3 against the run line. The Braves are 62-73 against the run line, while the Phillies are 67-68. Likewise, the Braves are 37-34 against the run line on the road, while the Phillies are 33-34 against the run line at home. The Phillies had a comeback victory on Thursday, but the Braves covered the spread in that game. Then, the Braves won on Friday. Ultimately, the Phillies have struggled to cover against the Braves this season. Plus, their bullpen isn't that great. We could see this game going down to the wire. Braves cover.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-166)
