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The top two teams in the NL Central face as the Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Reds prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Brewers ended their first half of the season by taking two of three from the Reds and winning seven of their last ten games. Sitting at 49-42 on the season, the Brewers are just a game behind the Reds for the lead in the division. Meanwhile, they sit just a half-game back in the wild-card race as well. Over the break, the Brewers began gearing up for their second half with a small trade and should be moving more pieces as the trade deadline approaches.
The Reds enter the break after losing just their second series since the call-up of Elly De La Cruz. Still, they sit at 50-41 on the season and have a game lead over the Brewers for the division. The Reds have not made the playoffs in a non-covid shortened season since 2013. They will also be looking for their first division title since 2010 when they played in an NL Central that still featured six teams.
Here are the Brewers-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Reds Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+128)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 10 (-110)
Under: 10 (-110)
How To Watch Brewers vs. Reds
TV: BSWI/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:10 PM ET/ 4:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
If the Brewers are going to make a run at the division crown, they need to figure out their offense. They are 22nd in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 26th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging. Christian Yelich has led the way this year for the Brewers. He leads the team in batting average at .284, while also leading the team in RBIs with 46. He ended the first half hot. In July he is hitting .364 with nine RBIs and two home runs. He has also hit a double and a triple while getting on base at a .447 clip. To top it all off, he has three stolen bases, and has scored 11 times in eight games.
The major power bat in the lineup has been Willy Adames, who leads the team with 16 home runs. He has not been hitting great this year, hitting just .213, but he does have 46 RBIS as well. Like Yelich, he finished the first half hot. Adames is hiting .308 in July with four home runs and 11 RBIs. He has also gotten on base at a .333 rate while scoring five times.
Joining Adames and Yelich with a hot bat has been Joey Wiemer. While he is hitting just .250 this month, he had a great last four games. He is five for his last 17 at the plate with a home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored. Meanwhile, William Contreras hit .400 in July with six RBIs and six runs scored. He also has a home run this month, and two doubles to add to it.
The Brewers will be sending Corbin Burnes to the mound today. He is 7-5 on the season with a 3.94 ERA. On the road, he has been slightly better. He is 3-3 on the road with a 3.76 ERA. He is coming off a solid game against these game Reds. Last time out he went six innings, giving up just two runs. He did give up a home run and walk four, but he came away with the win. In two starts in July, he is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds come into the game with a very solid offense. They are fifth in the majors in runs scored this year, while sitting third in on-base percentage. The Reds are also tenth in batting average and sit 11th in slugging percentage this year. The huge spark in the lineup came with the call-up of Elly De La Cruz. While he had a good start to his career in June, De La Cruz has been better in July. He is hitting .368 this month with four RBIs and a home run. He has also scored seven times in the month. The biggest factor has been his seven stolen bases, including stealing home against the Brewers before the break.
Spencer Steer leads the team in batting average and home runs but has struggled in July so far. He is hitting just .229 on the month with one home run and three RBIs. In the series with the Brewers, he was held without a hit and stuck out six times. The team leader in RBIs has been Jake Fraley. He has 52 on the season to lead the team. Fraley needs to figure out how to get back to driving in runs. He is hitting .286 on the month with a .464 on-base percentage. Still, he has just two RBIs this month while scoring four times.
On the hill, today for the Reds will be Graham Ashcraft. He is 4-6 on the season with a 6.28 ERA. After having three bad starts in a row in June, giving up 19 runs in just 10.2 innings, Ashcraft has rebounded. In his last two starts, he has gone a combined 12.2 innings and given up just two runs. That has resulted in him picking up one win. Ashcraft has struggled with home runs at times this year. If he can keep the ball in the park today, he should be fine.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick
The Brewers and the Reds played three games in Milwaukee right before the All-Star break. The result was two wins for the Brewers and one for the Reds. The Brewers did a solid job of shutting down the offense, holding them to 11 runs in three games. Eight of those runs came in their only loss, while the Brewers shut out the Reds in the last game before the break. Do not expect a shutout today. The Reds have a much better offense, and Corbin Burnes has not been lights out this year. There could be plenty of runs, but with the extra runs going to the Reds, pick them over the Brewers in this one.
Final Brewers-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (-154)
