After over a year of speculation, Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2) and Terence Crawford (41-0) will meet in the ring on Saturday night. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford prediction and pick.
Alvarez, 35, has reigned over the super middleweight division since he initially moved up in 2018. Since then, Canelo has gone 11-0 in the division. He most recently out-pointed William Scull to a dominant decision victory in May.
Crawford, 37, has not fought since August 2024, when he became a four-division champion with a decision win over Israil Madrimov. Since he captivated the boxing world with his dominant win over Errol Spence Jr. in July 2023, Crawford has only fought once. He now moves up in weight for the second consecutive fight to face Alvarez.
Here are the Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford Odds
Canelo Alvarez: -180
Terence Crawford: +140
Over 11.5 Rounds: -410
Under 11.5 Rounds: +280
How to Watch Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford
Time: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET
TV/Stream: Netflix
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Why Canelo Alvarez Will Win
The obvious factor in this fight is the size disparity. Alvarez, a true 168-pound fighter, will welcome Crawford to the division. Crawford has done his best work in the 147-pound division and just moved up to 154 pounds in his last fight before making the massive leap to super middleweight.
The fighters look similar in size when facing off, but Alvarez's strength and power will be a massive advantage. Fans would expect the smaller Crawford to be the quicker fighter, but he has always been one known for his strength and power in his own right. Neither of those factors figures to be on his side against Alvarez, who has never been knocked down in his 67-fight career.
Crawford is an elite fight finisher, but Alvarez has only been in danger a handful of times. It would certainly be a massive shock if ‘Bud' is the fighter to finally crack his unbreakable chin. Crawford, who looked somewhat uncomfortable moving up to 154 pounds in his last fight, is now fighting 21 pounds heavier than his ideal division. Weight classes exist for a reason.
Why Terence Crawford Will Win
Crawford will be smaller than Alvarez, but he will not face the stark size disadvantage that many fans perceive. Although strength and power will be with the champion, Crawford actually has a four-inch reach advantage over Alvarez. The last time Canelo faced a wide reach disadvantage against a formidable opponent, he lost to Dmitry Bivol.
Since the Bivol fight, Alvarez has not exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents. He settled his rivalry with Gennady Golovkin, but the legendary ‘Triple G' was 40 years old entering that fight. Alvarez has since defended his titles against Jermall Charlo, John Ryder, Jaime Munguia, Edgar Berlanga and William Scull. The difference in skill level between Munguia, Berlanga and Scull to Crawford cannot be understated.
It is worth noting that Amir Khan, the only fighter who faced both Alvarez and Crawford, is picking Crawford to pull off the upset. Khan stated that Crawford puts on size well and has had nearly a full year to prepare for this matchup.
Final Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford Prediction & Pick
There is some truth to the popular notion that Alvarez is no longer at the peak of his career. Many Crawford backers are banking on that fact entering this matchup with a consensus top-four pound-for-pound boxer. However, it is equally likely that the 37-year-old Crawford has also seen his best days.
It was not too long ago when Alvarez was the smaller fighter moving up in weight. When he challenged Dmitry Bivol for the light heavyweight title in 2022, fans expected his superior skills and speed to prevail. Instead, Alvarez admitted post-fight that he felt like the much smaller man against Bivol's power.
Neither fighter has ever been knocked down in their careers, and both tend to start slowly. A matchup featuring two of the most technical boxers of the modern era might not lead to the barnburner that some fans want. In what should be a tight, neck-and-neck battle, expect Alvarez's power to be the X-factor that leads to him getting his hand raised.
Final Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford Prediction & Pick: Canelo Alvarez (-180), Over 11.5 rounds (-410)
