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In his first fight with Turki Alalshikh and Riyadh Season, Canelo Alvarez (62-2-2) seeks his sixth consecutive title defense against the undefeated William Scull (23-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Canelo Alvarez-William Scull prediction and pick.
Alvarez, 34, enters another fight against an unknown opponent, much to the chagrin of fans. However, the bout is intended to serve as a tune-up of sorts, with Alvarez already tentatively scheduled to face WBA and WBO light middleweight champion Terence Crawford in September. Alvarez is coming off a dominant decision win over Edgar Berlanga in September 2024.
Scull, 32, won the IBF super middleweight title in his most recent outing, a convincing decision win over Vladimir Shishkin. Despite the lack of big-name opponents on his resume, Scull is not lacking in confidence, believing he will be the first fighter to defeat Alvarez at 168 pounds.
Here are the Canelo Alvarez-William Scull odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Canelo Alvarez-William Scull Odds
Canelo Alvarez: -3000
William Scull: +1360
Over 9.5 Rounds: -126
Under 9.5 Rounds: -102
How to Watch Canelo Alvarez vs. William Scull
Time: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Canelo Alvarez Will Win
Now all-in as a boxing promoter, Alalshikh is already deep in his investment in Alvarez. This event is a nice kick-off, but the real focus of Alalshikh, Alvarez and Riyadh Season is on the Crawford fight. Alalshikh has shown his wisdom and dedication to the boxing world and would not have booked this fight if he felt there was any significant risk of hurting his big event in September. There is a reason Alvarez is fighting Scull and not David Benavidez.
Alvarez will be the smaller man, but Scull does not have the style that has historically given him trouble. Scull is adept at using his length and range to his advantage, but he tends to throw one pawing shot at a time without much precision to them; he landed just 22.3 percent of his punches against Shishkin. Scull does not have much natural power and hardly makes a dent in that regard, landing just 36 power punches on Shishkin.
Needless to say, Alvarez will be miles better than any previous opponent of Scull. Shishkin was already a sizeable step up from any of his previous fights, but facing Alvarez in a pay-per-view headliner is an entirely different level. Scull appears ready for the challenge, but Alvarez has nearly triple the number of professional fights and has yet to lose at 168 pounds.
Why William Scull Will Win
Unlike each of Alvarez's previous two opponents, Scull is not a random contender coming out of nowhere. He is the IBF super middleweight champion, making him one of Alvarez's most logical opponents. Fans still want the Benavidez fight, but Scull holds the only 168-pound belt not already in Alvarez's closet.
The size difference will be notable in the ring, with Scull standing four inches taller with a three-inch longer reach. Alvarez struggled with size before, with his last loss to Dmitry Bivol a near-direct result of the size and power advantage the Russian held over him. When facing a champion like Alvarez, one of the most significant components for a fighter like Scull is not succumbing to the moment, and he does not appear to be struggling with the spotlight.
While this fight is easily the biggest of Scull's career, it is clear Alvarez is already looking ahead. The entire promotion is gearing this event toward his preparation for the massive Crawford fight in September. Alvarez is typically as locked-in as they come, but boxing fans saw how a double-booking affected Tyson Fury in his fight with Francis Ngannou less than two years ago.
Final Canelo Alvarez-William Scull Prediction & Pick
Alvarez is expected to cruise here and should do so without breaking too much of a sweat. Scull's size might appear daunting, but he does not excel at keeping his opponents at bay with his jab. He throws it often, but landed them at just a 21 percent clip in his last fight with Shishkin. Alvarez is no stranger to being the smaller opponent and breaking down a larger man.
Without much power or combinations in his game, Scull's stick-and-move approach is far too limited to work on a perennial champion like Alvarez. This is the perfect matchup for the undisputed champion to look good in and set up the super fight with Crawford in four months' time.
From a matchup perspective, Alvarez should certainly get a finish, which is clearly what Alalshikh wants in this fight. But late in his career, he has taken fewer risks, and that is unlikely to change with a lucrative opportunity right in front of him. Alvarez claims he is fond of carrying his opponents due to his love of boxing and not wanting the fight to end. He should get the finish, but in a clear win-and-advance position, this win could look a lot like his previous two. Whether he wins this fight by decision or knockout will not affect the anticipation for the bout with Crawford.
Final Canelo Alvarez-William Scull Prediction & Pick: Canelo Alvarez by decision (+175)
