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The Cleveland Guardians hope to win their second consecutive American League Central division title. The optimism is high in Ohio as we continue our MLB odds series with a Cleveland Guardians over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Guardians went 92-69 last season but ended the season with a loss to the New York Yankees in the American League Championship. Surprisingly, there were not many changes in Cleveland, as Carlos Santana was the only significant addition on offense. But they recently added Paul Sewald to bolster their bullpen. Conversely, they lost Josh Naylor and Alex Cobb.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -106
Under 83.5 Wins: -114
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Guardians are the divisional champions. Yes, they lost some players, but this team is still the favorite in the Central. The Guardians went 30-22 against the AL Central in 2024. Likewise, they held their own against the Baltimore Orioles, going 4-3 against them.
Tanner Bibee is one of the reasons why this team is good, as he went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA last season. Bibee excelled with a good fastball and an above-average cutter and slider. Ben Lively hopes to take his game to the next level after going 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA over 29 starts. Ultimately, he thrived with a 90 MPH fastball and a barrel rate of .6 percent.
The Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball, led by the best closer. Amazingly, Emmanuel Chase dominated again, making 47 saves in 50 chances. He produced an elite cutter that fooled everyone. Cade Smith struck out 35.6 percent of the hitters he faced in his rookie season while working in important roles in the back end of the bullpen. Ultimately, he needed just a strong fastball and a good splitter to get the job done. Hunter Gaddis had increased velocity and a plus slider that thrived under pressure. Additionally, Tim Herrin had a 1.92 ERA, and Cade Smith had a 1.91 ERA.
Jose Ramirez was dominant last season, crushing 39 home runs, 118 RBIs, and 114 runs while also stealing 41 bases. Remarkably, it was his fourth straight season with at least 32 home runs, and he was incredibly close to having a 40-40 season. Steven Kwan is an elite leadoff hitter who walks a lot and is a gold glove defender. Overall, he had 14 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 83 runs while swiping 14 bags. These two power the Guardians and are often the reason the offense hums. Pitchers always have a tough time getting Kwan out. Then, when they have a runner on base, it gets even tougher when they have to face Ramirez. The Guardians love what these two bring to the table.
The Guardians will win 84 games because they have an elite top half of the rotation that will keep them going, along with the best bullpen in baseball. Also, Ramirez can change the game with one swing of the bat and will do it often this season.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Guardians struggled against the New York Yankees, going 2-4 against them last season. Furthermore, they went 1-4 against the Houston Astros. Beating these teams seemed impossible last season, contributing to their 69 losses.
While Ramirez and Kwan are exceptional, the rest of the lineup has some questions. Brayan Rochio is a good defender but a poor hitter. Likewise, Juan Brito is unknown, and the Guardians hope he can be solid. Santana still has some power left after smacking 23 home runs but is 39 years old. Meanwhile, Lane Thomas hit just .237 last season, while Bo Naylor could barely scrap the barrel of the bet. The bottom line? This offense is not scary when Ramirez and Kwan struggle. Instead, they turn into one of the worst.
Besides the top three pitchers, this rotation has some questions. First, what will the Guardians get out of Gavin Williams? Williams went 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA last season and needs better control of his fastball and more consistency with the curveball. Tristan McKenzie lost velocity on his pitch. Also, Joey Castillo must master more pitches than his offspeed pitch.
The Guardians will not win 84 games because their lineup has too many holes. Also, their rotation is still not good enough, besides the top half, to get the ball into the hands of the best bullpen in baseball.
Final Guardians Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Guardians are a great team. I think they should be higher than the 83-win prediction they have listed. Remember, this team won 90 games last season despite any issues they had. While they will lose to the elite teams, they will beat the bad teams. It will be enough to net them 88 wins this season. Ultimately, that will be enough to cover the win total prediction and shatter the spread.
Final Guardians Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick:
