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The North Florida Ospreys take on the Houston Cougars. Check out our college basketball odds series for our North Florida Houston prediction and pick.
The Houston Cougars did beat the Saint Mary's Gaels this past Saturday night in one of the more discussed and prominent college basketball games of the weekend. To that extent, they achieved their objective and did what they absolutely had to do … but they didn't play well, and they weren't better than Saint Mary's by a large margin. Houston had to scratch and claw its way to a 53-48 win. The Cougars displayed good effort and didn't make many mistakes. They held Saint Mary's to 37-percent shooting and allowed just 17 made field goals all night while forcing 17 SMC turnovers.
Stop and absorb that fact: Houston forced as many turnovers as it allowed made field goals. Typically, when a basketball team is able to achieve that, it wins big. If it gets a takeaway — an added possession — for each basket it allows, it is reducing the negative impact of each basket it concedes. It accumulates possessions: forced turnovers plus every defensive rebound off a missed shot. Houston's defense against Saint Mary's was good enough to win by 20 points.
The Cougars won by only five.
Houston just couldn't shoot, with the exception of J'Wan Roberts and Reggie Chaney. The two went a combined 10 of 14 from the field for Houston, but everyone else on the UH roster went a combined 11 of 43, just over 25 percent from the field. Houston made only three 3-pointers and eight free throws. The Cougars were outscored 27-9 from the 3-point line. Therefore, even though Houston was plus-12 in turnover differential (the Cougars gave the ball away only five times), its shooting woes and SMC's 3-point prowess kept the game very close. Houston didn't score at all in the final 2:40 of regulation, but it kept Saint Mary's scoreless at the same time. Houston didn't even hit a single free throw when leading by five in the final minute, but it didn't need to. It blanked the Gaels and escaped with an ugly win.
Houston knows its defense can win games, but its offense can't wither on the vine the way it did against Saint Mary's. That will eventually lead to a loss in a big game, such as the Elite Eight against Villanova last March. Houston has to develop more consistency on offense if it is going to return to the Final Four and contend for a national title in its home city. (The 2023 Final Four will be in Houston.)
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the North Florida-Houston College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: North Florida-Houston Odds
North Florida Ospreys: +32.5 (-106)
Houston Cougars: -32.5 (-114)
Over: 137.5 (-114)
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Under: 137.5 (-105)
Why North Florida Could Cover the Spread
This is a Houston team which can and will go through prolonged scoring droughts. North Florida can stay close if it plays strong, positionally sound defense and can do enough to protect the glass against the Cougars.
Why Houston Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars have struggled at times this season. They did against Kent State and they did again versus Saint Mary's. After those games, they have bounced back and played much better, winning by bigger margins. If that pattern of bouncing back remains intact, Houston will win this game in a total wipeout.
Final North Florida-Houston Prediction & Pick
When Houston has a bad offensive game, it usually follows it with a solid offensive performance. Houston should crush North Florida.
Final North Florida-Houston Prediction & Pick: Houston -32.5
