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The Iowa State Cyclones (3-3) travel to take on the #22 Texas Longhorns (4-2). Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Iowa State-Texas prediction and pick.
Iowa State started this season undefeated through three weeks but has since dropped three games in a row. The Cyclones won games against Southeast Missouri State, Iowa, and Ohio but have since dropped one-score games to Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State. Iowa State is 3-3 against the spread this season. The under has hit in 4 out of their 6 games.
Texas flirted with the Top 25 for a few weeks before their dismantling of Oklahoma finally pushed them to the 22nd-ranked team in the country. The Longhorn lost by 1 to Alabama in week 2 and by 3 to Texas Tech in a week 4 overtime loss. Texas has defeated UL Monroe, UTSA, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 2-1 in the Big 12. They've gone 5-1 against the spread and have gone under the projected total in 4 of 6 games.
Here are the Iowa State-Texas college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Iowa State-Texas Odds
Iowa State Cyclones: +15.5 (-105)
Texas Longhorns: -15.5 (-115)
Over: 48.5 (-110)
Under: 48.5 (-110)
Why Iowa State Could Cover The Spread
Iowa State is a better team than their 3-3 record suggests. Each of their losses has come in one-score games and they've outscored their opponents on average 23 to 14. If they're going to cover, however, they'll need more from an offense that's scored under 12 points in each of the last two weeks.
The offense starts with quarterback Hunter Dekkers and his favorite target Xavier Hutchinson. Dekkers has thrown for 1514 yards and 11 touchdowns this season but is coming off his worst game of the season. Kansas State held the sophomore in check to the tune of 198 yards and 0 touchdowns. The Longhorns shut out Oklahoma last week but have been vulnerable threw the air. They're allowing 212 passing yards per game and were torched in their loss to Texas Tech. In the loss they allowed Texas Tech to amass 331 yards through the air and were tormented by receiver Myles Price (13 catches).
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Texas being hurt by a star wideout is good news for Iowa State, as they feature arguably the best wide receiver in the nation. Xavier Hutchinson has been a man on a mission this season. The senior wideout set a school record last year with 83 receptions but is on pace to shatter that this year. Hutchinson has caught 57 passes through six games for the Cyclones which is 1st in the country. He's 9th in receiving yards (604) and 15th in touchdowns (5). He's gone over 80 yards in every game this season and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games. When making an Iowa State-Texas prediction it is worth noting that in last year's blowout win, Hutchinson caught 8 balls for 96 yards against Texas. He'll need to do that and more if Iowa State wants to cover this year.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas has all the momentum in the world after last week's 49-0 beatdown of rival Oklahoma. They're 15,5 point favorites for good reason. It's not like Iowa State has been bad this season – rather, the market may be suggesting that Texas is, indeed, back. The Longhorns are outscoring opponents by an average of 39 to 18 and have an incredibly potent offense.
That potent offense is led by freshman phenom Quin Ewers. The #1 ranked player in last year's recruiting class has drawn the eyes of fans and NFL scouts alike with his strong play to start the season. Although he missed a few weeks after leaving the Alabama game with an injury, Ewers responded in a major way in his return to action last week. In the blowout win, Ewers completed 21 of 31 passes for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. He was absolutely electric in the win but will need a repeat performance against an Iowa State defense that allows under 200 yards per game through the air.
Thankfully for Ewers, he won't have to go about the offensive attack alone. That's because he happens to hand the ball off to arguably the best back in the country in Bijan Robinson. Robinson was a thousand-yard rusher last year and is already looking to surpass his career high. For the season Robinson has carried the ball 110 yards for 645 yards and 10 touchdowns. He's a capable threat as a receiver out of the backfield, too, having caught 12 balls for 203 yards and a touchdown. While Ewers may get the publicity, Robinson is the backbone of this Texas offense and will be a major factor in whether or not Texas can cover the spread.
Final Iowa State-Texas Prediction & Pick
Texas has looked great this year and they finally have all their offensive pieces intact. However, Iowa State has a stout defense and capable enough offense that I don't feel comfortable picking either side. The under is much more enticing as Iowa State will slow the game down enough to keep the Longhorns in check.
Final Iowa State-Texas Prediction & Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)
