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The Memphis Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Check out our college football odds series for our Memphis Mississippi State prediction and pick.
The Memphis Tigers were an elite team in the American Athletic Conference a few years ago. They won a Group of Five championship and played in a New Year's Six bowl game. They met UCF in the AAC Championship Game and fell short, but were still a top-two team in the AAC for several seasons. In 2021, they fell off the pace, finishing 6-6 and delivering what was a very ordinary season. The Tigers were an average team. It's not as though they had a very positive point differential but got unlucky in close games. No, Memphis scored just 10 more points than it allowed all season long, 361-351. This team did not separate itself from the competition, unlike previous seasons when the Tigers were able to run away from opponents with a high-octane offense. That offense wasn't nearly as prolific in 2021. Scoring under 400 points in a season is simply not what Memphis fans have come to expect. This first game of the new campaign is an important measuring-stick moment for Memphis football as the Tigers try to get in the way of an expected Cincinnati-Houston AAC title game.
Mississippi State under Mike Leach is not boring, but neither has Leach's Air Raid offense taken off. Mississippi State scored fewer than 380 points last season in 13 games. That's an average of under 30 points scored per contest, which is not where MSU expects to be. When Leach moved from Washington State and the Pac-12 to the SEC, many people questioned if his offensive concepts would be able to take hold in the toughest conference in college football. While Leach has certainly not fallen flat on his face, he certainly hasn't gained the upper hand, either. Leach needs to find a way to raise the relatively low ceiling for his offense, getting this group to more consistently score 35 or more points every week, or at least most weeks. There is plenty of room for the Bulldogs to grow and evolve.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Memphis-Mississippi State College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Memphis-Mississippi State Odds
Memphis Tigers: +16.5 (-106)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: -16.5 (-114)
Over: 57.5 (-106)
Under: 57.5 (-114)
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Why Memphis Could Cover the Spread
In a first game of the season, passions will run high. Memphis might not be an especially strong team, but in this game against a team from a neighboring state in the same part of the country, the Tigers are going to bust out of the gate and treat this like a bowl game. They're going to be creative and aggressive, and while they might not win the game outright, they do figure to push Mississippi State for two and a half to three quarters. This game will not be a blowout, and that means Memphis will cover.
Why Mississippi State Could Cover the Spread
After a bad bowl loss to Texas Tech, everyone in the Mississippi State program had to reflect on how the 2021 season did not fully meet hopes or expectations. You should see a very focused, very determined group here. Memphis's regression on offense in 2021 should give Mississippi State the belief that if it can score the first touchdown and gain an early advantage, it can quickly establish leverage in this game while Memphis falters. The Tigers simply aren't as good as they once were.
Final Memphis-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
Mississippi State probably wins outright, but the Bulldogs are simply not a program which deserves the benefit of the doubt against the spread. The Bulldogs need to show a lot more than what they have put forth in the first few years of the Mike Leach era.
Final Memphis-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Memphis +16.5
