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The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Wisconsin Badgers. Check out our college football odds series for our Purdue Wisconsin prediction and pick.
The Purdue Boilermakers have never won the Big Ten West Division championship. The Big Ten went to a divisional setup with a conference championship game in the 2011 season. A total of 11 Big Ten Championship Games have been played. Purdue has not appeared in any of them.
That could change this season … but Purdue will have to go through the team which has usually won the Big Ten West.
Wisconsin has won multiple Big Ten Championship Games. The Badgers played in six of the first nine Big Ten title games. However, over the past three seasons, this program has fallen on hard times. The Badgers have struggled on offense and have lost the formula which worked so well for them for a very long period of time. Quarterback Graham Mertz has had three seasons in which to figure out how to create a highly productive offense, and he hasn't yet cracked the code. The continuous nature of his and the offense's struggles led to the firing of coach Paul Chryst earlier this year. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard — believed by many to be the favorite for the permanent head coaching job — was promoted to interim head coach. Wisconsin scored a decisive win over Northwestern but then ran into problems in a loss against Michigan State. Wisconsin, for every forward step it takes this season, takes another step backward. Leonhard has a lot of work to do in what amounts to an audition for the permanent job. If things go south, he might not be able to retain his position.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Purdue-Wisconsin College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Purdue-Wisconsin Odds
Purdue Boilermakers: +2.5 (-114)
Wisconsin Badgers: -2.5 (-106)
Over: 51.5 (-110)
Under: 51.5 (-110)
Why Purdue Could Cover the Spread
It can contain Wisconsin's offense. Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz just can't turn the corner. The Badgers placed a lot of faith and trust in him, instead of trying to grab a quarterback in the transfer portal and pursuing a different line of attack. That decision to stick with Mertz is the main reason Paul Chryst was fired, but it's not the only one. Wisconsin's offensive line has been the anchor and staple of the program. Everything the Badgers do runs through their offensive line. When the big uglies are firing off the ball and doing their job, everything about the Wisconsin offense and the Badgers' larger philosophy of how to play falls into place. Everything comes together. That simply isn't happening, and it's why Purdue can limit the Wisconsin offense and win this game.
The other point to make is that if anyone thought Wisconsin was clearly headed on the right path, the loss to Michigan State (following the blowout of Northwestern) should serve as an eye-opening moment and a sobering occasion. Purdue's lack of achievement in recent years should not dissuade anyone from picking the Boilermakers here.
Why Wisconsin Could Cover the Spread
The Badgers are a portrait of inconsistency, but they have done well against Purdue in recent years. More than that, Purdue failed to cover the spread against Nebraska last week and has not earned the benefit of the doubt in a big-game situation. This qualifies as a big game for Purdue. If the Boilermakers win in Madison, they would add one more head-to-head tiebreaker in the Big Ten West and could set up the big November game against Illinois as the de facto Big Ten West championship game.
Purdue doesn't do well in the really big games. There's a reason this program has never won the Big Ten West. This is an anti-Purdue pick more than a pro-Wisconsin pick, but it cashes the bet just the same.
Final Purdue-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
Don't trust Purdue. It's that simple.
Final Purdue-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick: Wisconsin -2.5
