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The UCF Knights take on the Memphis Tigers. Check out our college football odds series for our UCF Memphis prediction and pick.
The UCF Knights have had a wild ride this season, which is typical of a Gus Malzahn-coached team. Malzahn, a well-traveled coach most known for his successful but erratic run at Auburn, runs hot and cold as a coach, so it's little surprise that his teams have a hit-and-miss quality to them: When they're great they're outstanding; when they're bad they're really terrible.
UCF has lost to Louisville at home — at a time when Louisville was not playing well — and it has been blown out by SMU. Those were awful performances for this team. However, the Knights just did defeat defending AAC champion Cincinnati in a tough, riveting game, coming from behind and scoring a late go-ahead touchdown to win. If you have followed the Knights this year, you have seen a mixture of great football and awful football. That's the Gus Malzahn experience.
UCF, having just defeated Cincinnati, is still very much in the hunt for the AAC championship and the Group of Five championship. If Coastal Carolina (currently with only one loss) wins the rest of its games and finishes 12-1, the AAC champion might need to finish 12-1 to win the Group of Five title. An 11-2 AAC champion might not finish ahead of Coastal Carolina, though it would be a close call if that scenario materialized. UCF has to win out to have any chance of winning the Group of Five. That possibility is attainable, but it's not likely. At any rate, the Knights are under a lot of pressure in this game, and it will be interesting to see how they shoulder the burden.
Memphis blew a 26-7 third-quarter lead at home against Houston and lost 33-32 in the final seconds. Then Memphis lost a four-overtime battle to East Carolina, 47-45. More recently, the Tigers fell behind Tulane by a very large margin before making a furious rally to get within seven points before ultimately losing. Each of those losses has a common thread: Memphis plays well and poorly within the same game. There are sequences when the Tigers can't tie their shoelaces, and there are periods of play in which the Tigers look very formidable … but the bottom line is that the Tigers are rarely good enough for a long-enough period of time to win games. Playing 25 good minutes and 35 non-good minutes just isn't a formula for success. This volatile team needs to find a way to play well with more steadiness and stability.
Here are the UCF-Memphis NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UCF-Memphis Odds
UCF Knights: -3.5 (-102)
Memphis Tigers: +3.5 (-120)
Over: 60.5 (-112)
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Under: 60.5 (-108)
Why UCF Could Cover the Spread
If UCF is erratic, Memphis is a deluxe version of UCF with three times as much volatility. UCF separates itself from Memphis because its defense doesn't collapse quite as often. UCF has shown more of an ability to stabilize on defense when the offense isn't performing. That's what will enable the Knights to win here.
Why Memphis Could Cover the Spread
The Tigers know this is a final big chance to make a statement in the AAC. The Tigers have suffered a lot of near misses. This time — with UCF playing under a lot of situational pressure — the Tigers can regroup and ambush the Knights, who are a good team but hardly a rock of dependability.
Final UCF-Memphis Prediction & Pick
You should definitely stay away from this very mysterious game between two inconsistent teams. If you absolutely insist on a pick, take the home underdog, which is Memphis.
Final UCF-Memphis Prediction & Pick: Memphis +3.5
