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It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Colorado State-New Mexico prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Colorado State-New Mexico.
The Mountain West college basketball schedule for Wednesday night offers this showcase game in Albuquerque.
Colorado State was barely over .500 for the season just after Christmas Day. Their season was stuck. They knew they needed to make a run in the Mountain West to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth. This was always going to be an uphill climb, so with Colorado State being 8-2 in the Mountain West, the Rams are still not in an NCAA Tournament position. They are not projected to be in the field right now. However, they have given themselves a chance to become a bubble team if they can start picking off the top teams in the Mountain West — teams such as New Mexico.
The Lobos have set the gold standard in the Mountain West this season. Richard Pitino's previous UNM teams were weaker on defense and therefore were not in position to thrive if the offense had a bad night. This Lobo team in 2025 is stronger on defense and can withstand nights when the offense isn't supremely sharp. New Mexico has more ways to win games and has become more resilient and adaptable.
If Colorado State can go into The Pit and knock off the first-place team in the Mountain West, the Rams would put themselves on the bubble and in the mix with roughly five weeks until Selection Sunday. If CSU loses, the Rams would remain well outside the NCAA Tournament cut line and would need to really catch fire over the next four weeks to have a chance at a bid. This is a huge game for Colorado State, and there's no getting around that point.
Here are the Colorado State-New Mexico College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Colorado State-New Mexico Odds
Colorado State: +8.5 (-106)
Moneyline: +310
New Mexico: -8.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -400
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
How to Watch Colorado State vs New Mexico
Article Continues Below
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT
TV: FS1
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Colorado State Will Cover The Spread/Win
The spread is way too high for Colorado State. We are talking about a team which is 8-2 in the Mountain West and has been very, very good in 2025. This team struggled a lot in November and December but was strong in January, losing only one game in the entire month. This team has lost only two games since December 14. How is CSU getting nearly nine points here? New Mexico is a good team to be sure, but the Lobos aren't a dominant team. They were fortunate to beat Nevada at home. They struggled at Wyoming before rallying late for the win over the Cowboys. They had a hard time in a home game versus San Jose State before pulling out that win late in regulation. They beat UNLV by only two points. The spread seems out of proportion with how close this game figures to be. CSU needs it for the NCAA Tournament. UNM is not going to win decisively; if it wins, it will be close.
Why New Mexico Will Cover The Spread/Win
New Mexico just went to Utah State and drilled the Aggies by a double-digit margin. New Mexico clobbered Boise State by nearly 20 points at home. New Mexico thumped San Diego State by a big point spread at home. If the Lobos play up to the high standard they have set for themselves at home this season, they will cover the number.
Final Colorado State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Colorado State, but New Mexico has set the standard in the Mountain West this season and is playing at home. That is not an easy pair of views to hold in tension together. The spread feels large, but UNM is the better team. Maybe wait for a live play here. See if New Mexico gets off to a good start or not. If UNM gets a quick 10-5 lead, the live line might increase to New Mexico -10.5 or 11.5, at which point you could then grab CSU with an even larger spread. Alternatively, if CSU gets ahead by five points early, the live line might shrink to New Mexico -4.5, which could be attractive going the other way.
Final Colorado State-New Mexico Prediction & Pick: Colorado State +8.5
