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The UFC heavyweight division gets back on track at UFC Baku with Curtis Blaydes (18-5, one no-contest) taking on promotional newcomer Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1, one no-contest). It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Curtis Blaydes-Rizvan Kuniev prediction and pick.
Blaydes, 34, ends a year-long layoff after coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall for the interim heavyweight title. The loss dropped Blaydes to 1-2 in his last three fights, with his lone win in that frame a second-round TKO of Jailton Almeida at UFC 299.
Kuniev, 32, is making his UFC debut after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series 2024. The Dagestan native enters the promotion riding a 12-fight unbeaten streak that is only marred by a no-contest against former PFL champion Renan Ferreira. Before inking his deal, Kuniev was widely viewed as one of the best heavyweights not in the UFC.
Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Curtis Blaydes-Rizvan Kuniev Odds
Curtis Blaydes: -238
Rizvan Kuniev: +195
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
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Why Curtis Blaydes Will Win
Fans love to mock Blaydes on social media for his string of knockout losses. He has never lost by any other method, and when he loses, it tends to be a highlight. As the latest victim of the Tom Aspinall hype train, the Blaydes jokes have resurfaced, but he is still a bona fide elite fighter. The same cannot be said for Kuniev, who has never fought anyone close to Blaydes' level.
It might feel like Blaydes is nearing the end, but he is still just 34. For a heavyweight, that is still very much within his athletic prime. Despite suffering two first-round losses in as many years, Blaydes has never lost consecutive fights in his career. He is 4-0 coming off a loss, all in the UFC.
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Kuniev is a high-IQ striker, but he is a wrestler more than anything. As arguably the best heavyweight wrestler of all time, Blaydes has never lost to another grappler. All five of his losses have been against some of the heaviest hitters the sport has ever seen, which Kuniev is not.
Why Rizvan Kuniev Will Win
If Kuniev can corral Blaydes, he can make this fight interesting. The last time Blaydes fought a grappler, he was taken down nine times by Jailton Almeida in the first round. Blaydes only won that fight by creating a weird sequence to knock Almeida out early in the second round, but it was not looking good for him. Although an elite offensive wrestler, Blaydes has just a 31 percent takedown defense in the UFC.
Kuniev also has the skill set to frustrate Blaydes on the feet. While not the most powerful or quickest striker, Kuniev's precision and timing are elite for a heavyweight. His biggest issue is his frustratingly low volume, but when he throws, he typically lands. The Russian also showed off his unique ability to attack all three levels, finishing Hugo Cunha on DWCS with knees to the body.
As a Wushu Sanda fighter, Kuniev is adept at defending takedowns and in the clinch. He has never faced a wrestler like Blaydes, but his understanding of balance and hand positioning is better than most heavyweights. As good of a wrestler as Blaydes is, he has shockingly not landed a takedown in nearly four years. If Kuniev can fend off Blaydes' shots, pick his spots on the feet and land takedowns of his own, he could make Saturday a frustratingly long night for the recent title challenger.
Final Curtis Blaydes-Rizvan Kuniev Prediction & Pick
Whenever Blaydes suffers a loss, he tends to return to his roots in his next fight. Blaydes has power and is an above-average striker, but he is a wrestler through and through. His disciplined approach has led to his 4-0 career record coming off a loss, which is a difficult feat to maintain in the notoriously volatile heavyweight division.
The Dagestani Kuniev has good takedown defense and is a tough guy to wrestle, but more importantly, he is not a power puncher. All five of Blaydes' losses have come by knockout, all against arguably the heaviest hitters in UFC history. Kuniev has six wins by knockout, but most come by ground-and-pound rather than the typical highlight-reel blow. Aware of his lack of power, Kuniev is a methodical striker, but that approach is not one that Blaydes loses to.
Blaydes has been taken down before, most notably by Almeida in his last fight. However, Blaydes is difficult to hold down despite his low takedown defense rate. Almeida never held him down for longer than 30 seconds in their fight, instead racking up clinch control time. Kuniev does not have the strength or pace to out-grapple Blaydes, and is not a diverse enough striker to get past an athleticism and four-inch reach disadvantage. Expect the Denver native to defend his top-five ranking and pick up a much-needed win on the road.
Final Curtis Blaydes-Rizvan Kuniev Prediction & Pick: Curtis Blaydes by Decision (+200), Over 2.5 Rounds (-140)
