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Danielle Collins takes on Iga Swiatek at the Italian Open. Our Italian Open odds series has our Collins Swiatek prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Collins Swiatek.
This is an uncertain time for Iga Swiatek. She has been in the top two for nearly all of this decade, and has widely been regarded as one of the two best female tennis players in the world alongside Aryna Sabalenka for the past three years. Yet, right now, she is No. 4 in the live world rankings. She is in a battle with Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, the two players immediately above her, for the No. 2 ranking. The stakes involved are significant. Where players are ranked the week before the French Open will help determine seeding for the year's clay-court major championship. The player who gets the No. 2 seed at Roland Garros will not have to face top seed and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka until the final. The No. 3 and 4 seeds could be drawn to play Sabalenka in the final. That's no small thing. Swiatek — like Gauff and Pegula — is playing for something important in Rome, in addition to a trophy and a pile of prize money.
Here are the Danielle Collins-Iga Swiatek Italian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Italian Open Odds: Collins-Swiatek Odds
Game Spread:
Collins +5.5 (+108)
Swiatek -5.5 (-142)
Moneyline:
Collins +520
Swiatek -850
To Win First Set:
Collins +360
Swiatek -580
Total Games In Match:
Over 18.5 (-134)
Under 18.5 (-106)
Total Games Won:
Collins over 6.5 (-134)
Collins under 6.5 (-106)
Swiatek over 12.5 (+125)
Swiatek under 12.5 (-175)
How to Watch Italian Open
Time: 7 a.m. ET/4 a.m. PT
TV: Tennis Channel
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Danielle Collins Will Win
Danielle Collins has played in a major tournament final before. She has beaten Iga Swiatek in a major semifinal — at the 2022 Australian Open — to reach that major final. She is an accomplished player who represents a formidable opponent in the third round of a 1,000-point tournament. This is not a piece of cake for Swiatek. The Polish superstar should win the match, but it doesn't figure to be easy or lopsided. With a game spread of 5.5 — one which also carries plus money if you're backing Collins — that's a lot of margin for the American. If she loses 6-4 and 6-3, which is a fairly routine scoreline, she still covers the spread. Swiatek will have to win 6-3, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-2 to cover. Basically, all Collins has to do to cover the spread is keep two sets relatively close. Given that Swiatek has struggled recently, that seems like a realistic scenario.
Why Iga Swiatek Will Win
Iga Swiatek did not play well in Madrid, and everyone knows that. However, Swiatek and other WTA Tour professionals know that Madrid's combination of altitude and tricky conditions create an environment which features a bigger, higher bounce and a tournament which is more favorable to big hitters. On Roman clay, the bounce is lower, which means it will stay closer to Swiatek's preferred hitting zone. Rome is not as friendly to big hitters as Madrid. Swiatek looked very comfortable in her first match win in Rome. She can carry that into this match and blow away Collins, who is good but not nearly in Swiatek's league on red clay.
Final Collins-Swiatek Prediction & Pick
Our lean here is to Collins, but Swiatek could wake up and rediscover her top form. It's not a good match to bet on because the outcome could very easily go either way.
Final Collins-Swiatek Prediction & Pick: Collins +5.5 games
