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We're back with our predictions and picks for College Football Week 9 action as we head over to the Bluegrass State for this huge matchup between top-20 teams in the country. The No. 20 Duke Blue Devils (5-2) will take on the No. 18 Louisville Cardinals (6-1) as both teams try to contend in the competitive ACC. Check out our College Football odds series for our Duke-Louisville prediction and pick.
The Duke Blue Devils find themselves at 5-2 following their loss last week to No. 4 Florida State. It's their second loss on the season against a top-15 opponent, but they kept both games close and have managed to blow out their opponents in each of their five wins. This will be yet another test for quarterback Riley Leonard to see if he can lift his team higher up the ACC standings.
The Louisville Cardinals are 6-1 after suffering their first loss of the season to an unranked Pitt Panthers team 38-21. The loss came immediately after the Cardinals got their first win over a ranked opponent when they beat No. 11 Notre Dame. This will be their second meeting with a ranked opponent in Duke and they're intent on proving themselves as a top-20 team in the country.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Duke-Louisville Odds
Duke: +4.5 (-114)
Louisville: -4.5 (-106)
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
How to Watch Duke vs. Louisville Week 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/ 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
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Why Duke Will Cover The Spread
We're still waiting to see if quarterback Riley Leonard will be able to suit up for the Blue Devils on Saturday after reinjuring his ankle against Florida State. He's the clear motor that drives this team and his performances against top-25 competition this year have been impressive. It'll be a massive blow for them if he can't suit up at Louisville, but they'll have a solid backup option in freshman Henry Belin IV. Belin stepped up in a big way in their game against NC State when Leonard originally went down with the ankle. He threw two touchdowns on four completions for 107 yards and certainly has a flair for the unpredictable – let's see if he'll be able to conjure up some magic against the Cardinals.
Duke's defense has also been a high point for this team as they've been able to cause eight total turnovers on the season with six interceptions. Their front line does a great job of pressuring the quarterback and they stand strong in their coverage when plays begin to break down. They've had a tough time stopping the run at numerous points in the season, but the defense is able to dig in and get off the field on fourth downs. This Louisville team will look to push the tempo and run the ball quickly, so it'll be imperative for Duke's defense to stay composed and focused once Louisville starts driving. If they can rally behind their backup in Riley Leonard's absence, they could win this game as underdogs once again.
Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread
Louisville was ranked among the unbeaten before losing a shocker last week to Pitt. While they went into halftime leading by a touchdown, the Cardinals were outscored 17-0 in the third quarter and seemingly forgot how to stop Pitt's air attack. Quarterback Jack Plummer threw two costly interceptions, one of which was returned 86 yards for a touchdown, as he threw the ball 52 times. All other facets of their offense were clicking, including the run game, but the Cardinal's defense couldn't come up with many answers as they kept having to go back onto the field after short offensive possessions. In this game, they'll have to tighten things up against a much better defense in Duke if they want to have a chance at covering this spread.
Louisville comes into this game having won their last three meetings against the Duke Blue Devils. On the season, they're averaging almost 100 more passing yards on fewer attempts than their counterparts, so expect the Cardinals to take advantage of their air-attack and try to make this game a shootout in the probable absence of Riley Leonard. Both teams are averaging over thirty points a game, so Louisville will have a massive advantage if they can meet that mark and force Duke to try and keep up with them.
Final Duke-Louisville Prediction & Pick
This is going to be a very competitive matchup as both teams know what's at stake in the ACC. Both teams are similar in how often they throw the football, but Louisville has been more efficient in doing so. Whether or not Riley Leonard plays will be a massive factor in this game, but the Blue Devils are prepared to fight behind Henry Belin IV. He's shown poise as a freshman in his last two appearances, so don't be surprised if he looks comfortable taking the field as the starter.
I believe the defense for Duke will be the biggest factor if they're able to pressure the quarterback and disrupt some of Louisville's set passing plays. For our prediction, let's take the Blue Devils with the points as they jump ahead in the national standings.
Final Duke-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Duke Blue Devils +4 (-114)
