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UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg continues on the prelims with a fight between Edgar Chairez and CJ Vergara in the flyweight division. Chairez is coming off a tough unanimous decision defeat his last time out; meanwhile, Vergara has now lost back-to-back fights coming into this weekend's matchup. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Chairez-Vergara prediction and pick.
Edgar Chairez (11-6) got his first UFC victory with a dominant showing against Daniel Lacerda back in February 202,4 but the hype of that win was quickly derailed by a loss to Joshua Van. No, with Chairez being just 1-2-0, 1 NC in his UFC career, he needs a big win this weekend in front of his home crowd in Mexico City when he takes on CJ Vergara.
CJ Vergara (12-6-1) has had a mixed bag of success in the UFC, where he is 3-4 but is riding a two-fight losing skid after back-to-back losses to Asu Almabayev and Ramazan Temirov. Now with a do-or-die situation at hand, Vergara will be looking to get back on track in a big way when he takes on Edgar Chairez at UFC Mexico City.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Edgar Chairez-CJ Vergara Odds
Edgar Chairez: -258
CJ Vergara: +210
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Edgar Chairez Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Joshua Van – DEC
- Last 5: 2-2-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 11 (4 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Edgar Chairez is poised to secure a victory against CJ Vergara at UFC Mexico City this weekend, showcasing his evolving skillset and recent momentum. Chairez's impressive performance against Daniel Lacerda in February 2024, where he secured a first-round triangle choke submission, demonstrates his grappling prowess and ability to capitalize on opponents' mistakes. This win not only boosted his confidence but also highlighted his improved ground game, which could prove crucial against Vergara. Additionally, Chairez's Mexican fighting style, characterized by high volume and aggressive pressure, aligns well with the energy of a home crowd in Mexico City.
In contrast, Vergara has shown vulnerabilities in his recent outings, particularly in his last fight against Ramazan Temirov where he was knocked out in under three minutes. Vergara's tendency to miss weight and his struggles against high-pressure fighters could play into Chairez's hands. Chairez's ability to mix striking with grappling, coupled with his improving takedown defense, gives him a well-rounded approach to exploit Vergara's weaknesses. With the home crowd advantage and a more diverse skill set, Chairez is likely to outwork Vergara on the feet and potentially secure a submission victory, continuing his upward trajectory in the UFC's flyweight division.
Why CJ Vergara Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ramazan Temirov – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 7 (7 KO/TKO)
CJ Vergara is set to outclass Edgar Chairez at UFC Mexico City this weekend, showcasing his superior striking and experience in the octagon. Vergara's aggressive fighting style and high-volume striking approach are likely to overwhelm Chairez, who has shown vulnerabilities in his striking defense. While Chairez has demonstrated grappling skills, Vergara's takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing will neutralize this threat. Vergara's experience against tougher competition in the UFC gives him a significant edge, as he's faced more seasoned opponents and has a better understanding of the pressures of fighting on the big stage.
Furthermore, Chairez's inconsistent performances and weight management issues could play into Vergara's hands. Chairez's recent loss to Joshua Van exposed his tendency to fade in later rounds, a weakness that the cardio-driven Vergara can exploit. Vergara's ability to push the pace and maintain pressure throughout the fight will likely force Chairez into uncomfortable positions, leading to mistakes that Vergara can capitalize on. With his more refined striking technique and octagon experience, Vergara is poised to secure a decisive victory, potentially via TKO in the later rounds, cementing his position in the competitive flyweight division.
Final Edgar Chairez-CJ Vergara Prediction & Pick
The flyweight clash between Edgar Chairez and CJ Vergara at UFC Mexico City promises to be an explosive encounter. Chairez, looking to get back to his February 2024 form against Daniel Lacerda, will look to capitalize on his grappling skills and home crowd advantage. However, Vergara's experience and aggressive striking could prove decisive. Expect a fast-paced battle with Vergara pushing the tempo on the feet, while Chairez seeks takedown opportunities. The fight's outcome may hinge on Vergara's ability to defend against Chairez's grappling and maintain his striking dominance. In a closely contested match, Vergara's octagon experience and striking volume could earn him a narrow decision victory in an entertaining back-and-forth affair.
Final Edgar Chairez-CJ Vergara Prediction & Pick: CJ Vergara (+210), Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)
