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UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval kicks off the prelims with a fight between Erik Silva and Muhammad Naimov in the featherweight division. Silva lost in his debut fight meanwhile, Naimov has won five straight with back-to-back wins inside the octagon. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Silva-Naimov prediction and pick.
Erik Silva (9-2) secured a contract on the Contender Series with a first-round TKO victory against Anvar Boynazarov. That was short-lived when he made his UFC debut in December 2022 where he was submitted by former UFC veteran TJ Brown in the third round. He will be making his second walk to octagon after a 14-month layoff to take on the surging Muhammad Naimov this weekend.
Muhammad Naimov (10-2) made the most of his short-notice opportunity when he stepped in for the injured Guram Kutateladze back in June 2023 and knocked out Jamie Mullarkey in the second round. He kept that momentum going by dominating Nathaniel Wood in his next fight making it five wins in a row. Now, he is set to continue his winning ways when he takes on Erik Silva this weekend in Mexico City.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Erik Silva-Muhammad Naimov Odds
Erik Silva: +425
Muhammad Naimov: -575
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -160
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Why Erik Silva Will Win
Erik Silva while he did do well in the Contender Series, got a contract very late in his MMA career at the age of 34. Dana White and the matchmakers don't normally sign fighters in their mid-30s, let alone featherweights in their mid-30s but he got the contract and didn't look so great in his only fight with the promotion getting submitted in his UFC debut. He now gets to right his wrongs when he takes on the tough Muhammad Naimov this weekend in Mexico City.
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Silva was the Lux Fight League Featherweight Champion before making his Contender Series debut. His bread and butter is his grappling which will certainly be his go-to in this matchup against Naimov who has some power behind his strikes. If there is any drawback regarding Naimov's game it is his lack of takedown defense which stands at a measly 57% through three fights, two in the octagon and one in the Contender Series. If Silva can utilize his grappling and control Naimov on the mat he has a chance to score the massive upset and get his first win inside the octagon.
Why Muhammad Naimov Will Win
Muhammad Naimov looked like a great prospect in his short-notice debut against Jamie Mullarkey when he starched him in the second round. He did one better his next time out and dominated one of the top prospects in the division, Nathaniel Wood, for the entire 15 minutes. Naimov is now riding a five-fight winning streak and will be looking to extend that to six fights when he takes on Erik Silva this weekend.
Naimov has relentless forward pressure that breaks even some of the best fighters. Being as that he trains at elevation in Colorado he will be more than ready to take on the climate over in Mexico City and push a pace that Silva will not be able to keep up with. Naimov's glaring hole is his takedown defense but his ability to work his way back to the feet is going to work wonders in this matchup. As long as Naimov can keep this fight on his fight, he will be live for a big knockout finish to extend his winning streak to six.
Final Erik Silva-Muhammad Naimov Prediction & Pick
This is a fantastic scrap to kickstart the prelims in Mexico City. Silva looked like a fine prospect when he was on the Contender Series but he really showed his age in his UFC debut which could be a potential problem against Naimov who's seven years younger than him. Naimov has shown his toughness and his never-give-up attitude throughout his time in the UFC and even on the regional scene which is something that will work wonders for him in this matchup.
Ultimately, expect Erik Silva to land some takedowns with control early on in this fight but as the fight progresses he will start to lose gas and that is when Naimov will be able to take over in the second half of this fight eventually putting him away before the final horn to notch his sixth win in a row and his third consecutive victory inside the octagon.
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Final Erik Silva-Muhammad Naimov Prediction & Pick: Muhammad Naimov (-575), Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)
