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The time has finally come and the Main Event of UFC 302 is here. We'll bring you a prediction and pick for the headlining bout in Newark, New Jersey as the Lightweight Championship will be on the line. Champion Islam Makhachev will defend his belt against former title challenger and No. 4-ranked Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. Check out our UFC odds series for our Makhachev-Poirier prediction and pick.
Islam Makhachev (25-1) has gone 14-1 in the UFC en route to becoming Lightweight Champion and Pound-for-Pound World #1. He's riding an unbeaten streak of 13 fights and will be defending his belt for the third time. He's now beaten Volkanovski (x2), Oliveira, and Bobby Green to get to this point against Poirier. The Champion stands 5'10” with a 70.5-inch reach.
Dustin Poirier (30-8) has gone 22-7-0-1 inside the UFC and en route to multiple title challenges. He's 3-2 over his last five fights with losses to Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, but he's been able to remain relevant and in title contention while facing some of the baddest men on the planet. His last win was a stunner over Benoit Saint Denis and given his stardom, it's finally time he gets another shot at UFC gold. Poirier stands 5'9″ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 302 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 302 Odds: Islam Makhachev-Dustin Poirier Odds
Islam Makhachev: -650
Dustin Poirier: +475
Over 2.5 rounds: +145
Under 2.5 rounds: -175
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Why Islam Makhachev Will Win
Islam Makhachev will be making the third defense of his title and he's only beginning his long reign as champion. With cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov not in his corner during the last bout, Khabib will be by Islam's side in the corner and throughout this training camp. This is a huge advantage as Khabib was in a similar situation facing Dustin Poirier when he was champion, which ultimately led to a submission win. Look for Islam Makhachev to have a very specific game plan for waiting on Poirier to over-extend until he locks in for a single leg takedown.
We've seen in his previous two fights that Makhachev's striking has been evolving with each passing training camp. He added the high kick into his arsenal and his hand speed has gotten better since his initial title challenge. Still, Dustin Poirier possesses a unique mix of grappling and arguably the best boxing in the division, so Makhachev will have to be perfect in finding an opening and quickly ending this fight with a submission. His physical condition will be through the roof and we should see him as the bigger fighter once these two stand across from each other.
Why Dustin Poirier Will Win
Dustin Poirier once again finds himself in a title fight for the belt and he's hoping he can finally cash-in on this opportunity after coming close so many times before. We hadn't seen Poirier knocked-out like he was against Gaethje in quite some time, but his resolve to return and fight another killer in Benoit Saint Denis shows how tough and game for a challenge Poirier really is. His bout against Khabib Nurmagomedov ended in a submission loss, so expect Poirier to be aware of the game plan as he does everything to try and stay upright on his feet. If he's able to keep Makhachev in boxing range, he'll give himself a chance to land the combination he needs.
Dustin Poirier will have his best chance to win this fight in the opening round. As a champion, we've seen Islam Makhachev start fights slow and methodically in efforts to read his opponent and offer feint looks. Poirier can disrupt this by bringing the pressure from the opening bell and rocking Islam with a hook early. While they're still both dry, don't be surprised if Poirier sells-out for his patented guillotine, a choke that almost worked on Khabib during their fight. All in all, we'd be lying if we thought Dustin Poirier didn't have a chance in this fight.
Final Islam Makhachev-Dustin Poirier Prediction & Pick
This fight will be a monumental moment for both fighters as Islam Makhachev looks to continue his dominant reign as champion and Dustin Poirier looks to capture the title that's eluded him for so long. It will be very interesting to see what kind of game plan Khabib Nurmagomedov puts together for Makhachev as they should know what kind of looks Poirier will throw at him in there. Either way, Makhachev's grappling is out of this world and he'll look to advance position quickly on a strong grappler like Poirier.
Dustin Poirier will have to stun Islam Makhachev early to gain his respect in this fight. If Poirier can threaten the finish just once, it should put Makhachev and his corner on notice and make them second-guess some of their tactics. Ultimately, the first round will be extremely important for Poirier in swinging the momentum to his side.
Still, Islam Makhachev believes he will finish this fight within three rounds and we wouldn't be surprised if he tries to stand and strike with Poirier throughout portions of this bout.
For our prediction, we'll roll with Islam Makhachev to get the win inside of the distance. This is a massive moment for him and it makes all the difference that Khabib is able to give him tips on how to fight Dustin Poirier. Still, you can never count Poirier out and it could be worth looking into his early submission props during this fight.
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Final Islam Makhachev-Dustin Poirier Prediction & Pick: Islam Makhachev (-650); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-175)
