UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rountree Jr. continues on the prelims with a fight between Ismail Naurdiev and JunYong Park in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Naurdiev-Park prediction and pick.

Ismail Naurdiev (24-7) returned to the UFC with a dominant unanimous decision win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308, showcasing improved grappling and control. Previously, Naurdiev submitted Tahar Hadbi in the first round at Brave CF 79. Now, he aims to keep the momentum going against Jun Yong Park at UFC Baku this Saturday night.

JunYong Park (18-6) bounced back from a narrow split decision loss to André Muniz by edging Brad Tavares in a hard-fought split decision last October. Now, Park looks to build on that momentum and halt Ismail Naurdiev’s resurgence when they clash at UFC Baku this Saturday night.

Here are the UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Baku Odds: Ismail Naurdiev- JunYong Park Odds

Ismail Naurdiev: +160

JunYong Park: -192

Over 2.5 rounds: -166

Under 2.5 rounds: +130

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Why Ismail Naurdiev Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Bruno Silva – DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 18 (12 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Ismail Naurdiev enters UFC Baku with momentum and a versatile skill set that could prove too much for JunYong Park. Naurdiev, known as “The Austrian Wonderboy,” boasts dynamic striking with flashy kicks and spinning attacks, as well as a strong wrestling base that allows him to dictate where the fight takes place.

In his recent return to the UFC, Naurdiev showcased improved grappling, securing three takedowns and nearly six minutes of control time against Bruno Silva, which neutralized Silva’s offense and demonstrated Naurdiev’s ability to blend striking with wrestling seamlessly. His 12 knockout wins and six submissions highlight his finishing ability, and his scrambling and reversal skills make him dangerous in all phases of the fight.

While Park is a tough, grinding fighter who often finds success in ugly, physical bouts, he lacks the elite athleticism and finishing instincts that Naurdiev possesses. Park’s tendency to start slow and rely on wearing opponents down could backfire against a fast starter like Naurdiev, who has 15 first-round finishes and excels at capitalizing on early openings.

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If Naurdiev can establish his range and keep the fight standing, his speed and variety of attacks should frustrate Park and rack up points. Even if the fight goes to the mat, Naurdiev’s wrestling and scrambling could allow him to reverse positions and threaten submissions, giving him multiple paths to victory. Expect Naurdiev to outwork Park with superior athleticism, striking diversity, and fight IQ, securing a decision or late stoppage win at UFC Baku.

Why JunYong Park Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Brad Tavares – DEC
  • Last 5: 4-1
  • Finishes: 11 (5 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

JunYong Park’s relentless pressure and well-rounded MMA arsenal give him a clear path to victory over Ismail Naurdiev this weekend. Park, known as “The Iron Turtle,” has consistently showcased his ability to blend crisp boxing with effective grappling, overwhelming opponents with volume and pace.

Park’s recent split decision win over Brad Tavares highlighted his resilience, as he survived an early knockdown and rallied with aggressive combinations and timely takedowns to secure control in the later rounds. His ability to recover from adversity and adjust his strategy mid-fight has been a hallmark of his UFC run, making him a tough puzzle for dynamic strikers like Naurdiev.

While Naurdiev boasts athleticism and flashy techniques, he has struggled against opponents who can pressure him, mix in takedowns, and grind out rounds with top control. Park’s grappling, as seen in his dominant performances against John Phillips and others, allows him to dictate where the fight takes place and sap the energy of explosive opponents.

If Park can close the distance, initiate clinches, and force Naurdiev to fight off his back foot, he is likely to wear down “The Austrian Wonderboy” over three rounds. Expect Park to utilize his superior fight IQ, cardio, and durability to secure a decision victory and continue his climb up the middleweight ranks.

Final Ismail Naurdiev- JunYong Park Prediction & Pick

Ismail Naurdiev’s dynamic striking and improved wrestling give him the edge over Jun Yong Park in this middleweight clash. Expect Naurdiev to set the tone early with his speed and diverse attacks, keeping Park on the outside and racking up points with kicks and combinations.

If Park tries to close the distance, Naurdiev’s scrambling and takedown defense should allow him to stay upright or reverse positions, frustrating Park’s attempts to grind out rounds. Over three rounds, Naurdiev’s athleticism and finishing instincts are likely to outshine Park’s pressure, leading to a clear decision or late stoppage win.

Final Ismail Naurdiev- JunYong Park Prediction & Pick: Ismail Naurdiev (+160), Over 2.5 rounds (-166)