We're back once again with a betting prediction and pick for UFC London: Edwards vs. Brady as we turn attention towards the Featured Prelim of the card taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. England's own Jai Herbert will take on California's Chris Padilla. Check the UFC odds series for our Herbert-Padilla prediction and pick.
Jai Herbert (13-5-1) has gone 3-4-1 under the UFC banner since 2020, most recently beating Rolando Bedoya via unanimous decision. His last three bouts have resulted in a win, loss, and draw, so he'll be looking for a more decisive outcome while fighting in front of his home country fans. Herbert stands 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach.
Chris Padilla (15-6) has gone a spotless 2-0 since debuting in the UFC last year. He's a former title holder in the UNF organization, beating James Llontop and Rongzhu upon his entry to the UFC. He'll look to remain perfect as he embraces the villain role for this upcoming fight. Padilla stands 5-foot-9 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Jai Herbert-Chris Padilla Odds
Jai Herbert: -110
Chris Padilla: -110
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Jai Herbert Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Rolando Bedoya – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-2-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Jai Herbert was tasked with a wild striker in Rolando Bedoya during his last fight in Abu Dhabi, to which we saw him turn in one of the more complete performances of his UFC stint. While it was a brawl for much of the fight, Herbert managed to be much cleaner in the exchanges and landed a few massive left hands that almost sat his opponent down. He did a tremendous job of remaining composed in the pocket while firing his own offense, so expect him to bring a ton of confidence and energy into this bout as he looks to please his hometown fans.
Jai Herbert is precise when it comes to landing his shots, striking at a 42% clip and defending 52% of the shots coming back his way. Still, he's been absorbing more than he's been dishing out, so he'll have to replicate his last performance where he out-struck Bedoya 89-71 while landing two takedowns. He's not likely to go to the ground against a dangerous submission artist like Padilla, but Herbert should have the slight advantage striking within the pocket with his height and reach advantages.
Why Chris Padilla Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Rongzhu – TKO (doctor stoppage, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Chris Padilla has gotten the job done through two UFC appearances and while his fighting style certainly isn't polished or clean, it makes for a fun brawl and he's been on the right side of his first two fights. Padilla starts very fast and wastes no time in bringing the action to his opponent. His last five consecutive fights (all wins) have come inside the distance with two knockouts, two submissions, and a doctor's stoppage most recently. Expect him to be fearless in clashing with Herbert in the center of the octagon.
Chris Padilla will have to work through a size disadvantage as his opponent possesses a much longer frame. Still, Padilla is often able to slip underneath punches and land his own uppercuts and hooks when reestablishing position. He also lands 5.8 significant strikes per minute compared to Herbert's 3.16, so Padilla could certainly stand to be the more active striker while mixing his takedowns in the process.
Final Jai Herbert-Chris Padilla Prediction & Pick
This will be another fun fight to cap-off the Prelims as both men come in feeling confident after recent wins. Jai Herbert looked the best he has in his UFC career and it'll be interesting to see how much more he can improve when it comes to his striking. Chris Padilla has yet to drop a bout in the UFC, winning fights on the back of his aggression and ability to march forward through the fire.
While the striking edge leans slightly towards Herbert and how technical his stand-up is, Chris Padilla has a knack for making fights look ugly and forcing opponents to make mistakes in the face of his forward pressure. Furthermore, he's the much more active wrestler and we've seen similar styles give Herbert some issues in the past, fighting behind just a 23% takedown defense rate.
This fight is a coin flip on the betting odds, but we have to favor the more active striking from Chris Padilla and his ability to change the fight with a few takedowns. I expect late takedowns to be the main difference as Padilla gets the slight nod on the judges' scorecards in a hard-fought bout.
Final Jai Herbert-Chris Padilla Prediction & Pick: Chris Padilla (-110)