The UFC 320 Main Card is finally here as we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. No. 14-ranked Abus Magomedov of Germany will take on highly touted prospect Joe Pyfer in a high-stakes battle to open the Main Card. Check out our UFC odds series for the Magomedov-Pyfer prediction and pick.
Joe Pyfer (14-3) has gone 5-1 since arriving to the UFC through Dana White's Contender Series in 2022. After suffering his first loss to Jack Hermansson, he followed it up with a performance bonus KO and a recent unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum. He'll look to capitalize as the favorite and break through into the rankings. Pyfer stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Abus Magomedov (28-6-1) has gone 4-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2022. Since dropping back-to-back fights in 2023, he's rebounded with three straight victories with a submission win in the mix as well. Now, he'll look to improve his own stock and defend his ranking as the underdog. Magomedov stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 320 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 320 odds: Joe Pyfer-Abus Magomedov odds
Joe Pyfer: -265
Abus Magomedov: +215
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Joe Pyfer will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kelvin Gastelum – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Joe Pyfer suffering the first loss of his UFC career early on to Jack Hermansson could have been the best thing to ever happen to the 29-year-old budding contender, offering himself a platform to build and learn from. In the following fights, Pyfer has looked extremely sharp with both his hands and wresting offense/defense. This time around, he'll be tasked with putting away a dangerous, versatile striker.
Joe Pyfer is one of the pound-for-pound hardest hitters in the UFC thanks to his brute strength. However, he's become increasingly accurate in landing his intermediate strikes at 43%. While there's always room for improvement, it doesn't take many clean strikes for Pyfer to put an opponent away, indicative of his last ‘Performance of the Night.'
However, Pyfer's greatest advantage here could be his grappling and submission capabilities. He's already finished one of his UFC fights by submission, and Magomedov notably has two losses by submission in his own right. If Pyfer is able to secure a takedown and work from top position, he'll have every advantage grappling during this fight.
Why Abus Magomedov will win
- Last Fight: (W) Michel Pereira– U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Since dropping two fights in a row, Abus Magomedov has greatly improved in terms of his mental stability and composure during a fight. While he held the clear advantage during his last three fights, he managed to keep a steady pace while not taking anything off of his punches. His long frame and reach advantage over most opponents allows him to dominant the striking range and keep distance when he needs to.
A massive theme in Magomedov's game is the front leg kick, whether he's throwing it at an opponent's head or hitting them in the chest to create distance. Given how much Pyfer loads up on his punches and overhand shots, it could create openings for Magomedov to land a flush front kick in various points of this fight.
Magomedov, while having two submission losses on his record, sports a perfect 100% takedown defense rate and isn't likely to get taken down during this fight. On the feet, he should be able to dictate the pace and not allow Pyfer the room to land shots from inside the pocket. The longer this fight goes, the more it will favor the prolonged striking of Magomedov.
Final Joe Pyfer-Abus Magomedov prediction & pick
This will be a phenomenal scrap to open the UFC 320 Main Card as both fighters have the ability to finish this fight quickly. Given his long frame and rangy striking, Abus Magomedov will be looking to create space and put on a striking clinic against Pyfer. Pyfer, on the other hand, will be searching for the small openings where he can explode into his strikes and seek his opponent's chin.
The odds are rightfully in Pyfer's favor given his added skills in the grappling. I don't expect Pyfer to shoot for a takedown early on, and he'll want to avoid the strong clinch game of Magomedov. In all honesty, this betting line should be slightly closer than indicated given how technical Magomedov is with his striking.
However, we're still going to roll with Joe Pyfer to get the win thanks to his determined mindset and constant drive to improve his game. I expect we'll see the best version of him on Saturday night as he should walk away with a late knockout in this one.
Final Joe Pyfer-Abus Magomedov Prediction & Pick: Joe Pyfer (-265); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-154)
