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We're set for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland as we head to the Welterweight (170) Division for this next showdown. Australia's own Jonathan Micallef will take on France's Kevin Jousset in an exciting matchup between high-level strikers. Check the UFC odds series for our Micallef-Jousset prediction and pick.
Jonathan Micallef (7-1) will make his UFC debut on Saturday following a submission victory in his Contender Series audition. He's the No. 4-ranked prospect in Australia and will be fighting in front of a home crowd during this one, so expect the fans to be fully behind him as the betting underdog. Micallef stands six feet tall with a 77-inch reach.
Kevin Jousset (10-3) has gone 2-1 in the UFC since debuting in 2023. He dropped his first UFC bout his last time out against Bryan Battle in a chaotic two-round scrap. Now, he comes into hostile territory as the betting favorite looking to humble another fresh prospect. Jousset stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Odds
Jonathan Micallef: +210
Kevin Jousset: -258
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Jonathan Micallef Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Mohamed Ado – SUB (triangle choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Jonathan Micallef was very purposeful and determined during his DWCS audition in taking the fight where he felt most comfortable and locking in a triangle choke in the first round. His opponent was an unbeaten prospect and while Micallef hasn't been fighting for very long (pro since '22) he's been able to evolve substantially in just a short amount of time. Recently working on his submission grappling, he'll certainly have an advantage on the ground if he's able to get Jousset down there.
Micallef has face his fair-share of strikers in the past, but he'll be dealing with a very technical kickboxer in Jousset. His opponent makes use of his leg kicks very frequently, so Micallef will have to stay diligent in checking those early on. He's also averaging five takedowns per 15 minutes, so expect the wrestling to be something Micallef constantly goes back to throughout this one. While he'll be eager to display some of his striking prowess, he should waste no time in getting this fight to the ground and finding a submission.
Why Kevin Jousset Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bryan Battle – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Kevin Jousset is coming in following his first loss in the UFC, so this will be a strong indicator of his resiliency and character as a fighter. He's a classically-trained kickboxer and has very solid technique with everything he throws. He's the much better striker in terms of fluidity and hitting his target, so expect him to try and keep this fight on the feet knowing where he has the best chance to win. He lost his last fight on home soil, so expect him to embrace switching roles as the villain as he tries to exact his revenge and get this win back.
Kevin Jousset boasts 62% takedown defense and while he's not typically dangerous off his back, he certainly has a nasty guillotine choke and can catch his opponent if he's not careful. Jousset has also taken some damage to his chin over the last few fights, so expect a much more defensive approach and he keeps the exchanges throughout this one at a safe distance. His ability to control the range and close distance without getting hit is what makes him the betting favorite in this matchup.
Final Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Prediction & Pick
We'll have a classic striker vs. grappler during this one as Jonathan Micallef makes his debut in front of a home country crowd. He should be able to feed off the fans' energy as he'll try to bring this fight to the ground and work his submission. Kevin Jousset, however, is an elite kickboxer and will be peppering Micallef with kicks and straight punches down the middle throughout this whole fight.
Kevin Jousset does a great job of forcing other strikers to fight at his pace and range, but it'll be interesting to see how he handles an aggressive grappler like Micallef. Micallef wastes no time in chasing the submission and we can expect him to be aggressive right away in chasing a leg and trying to get this fight to the ground.
While the betting odds certainly don't favor him, we'll take the underdog shot with Jonathan Micallef in this fight. The energy from the pro-Aussie crowd should give him a boost and I expect him to grind out a tough submission win late in this fight.
Final Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Prediction & Pick: Jonathan Micallef (+210)