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Juan Soto made waves this baseball offseason as the biggest name available, and he made waves because of his contract. The New York Mets signed Soto to a massive 15-year, $765 million contract. Soto comes from across the other side of New York City after having a great year with the Yankees and being a key contributor to their making it to the World Series this past season.
Soto comes over to help lead a star-studded lineup with Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. They were 12th in overall offense this past season, and with the acquisition of Soto, that offensive ranking should skyrocket next year.
As the Mets enter the 2025 MLB season, they have the third-best odds to win the NL and the fourth-best odds to win the World Series. Soto is the reason why those odds are that high. The Mets made a great run toward the NLCS before losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The move to grab a huge piece on offense like Soto shows that the Mets mean business and are in line to contend in the playoffs for years with an owner willing to spend.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Juan Soto 2025 Home Run Total Odds
Over 34.5 Home Runs: (+102)
Under 34.5 Home Runs: (-130)
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Why Juan Soto Will Hit the Over
Juan Soto is primed for a massive season with the New York Mets. Soto is 26 and is already one of the best players in the entire MLB.
Last year, Soto finished the season with a .288 batting average, 41 home runs, 109 RBI, and an .989 OPS. It is also worth noting that the bright lights of the MLB postseason did not scare him this year, and he led the Yankees in batting average at .327, in OBP at .469, and in total hits at 16. He also had four home runs and nine RBI during their runs.
Soto joins a lineup with its fair share of hitters, including Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo. Teams having to account for that four-headed monster are in for a long season.
The Mets are the team that can set Soto up to keep succeeding. They have the talent around him, too, to keep him growing as a player, and that will open up all sorts of opportunities for Soto at the plate. He should dominate for the Mets, even with the Yankees having a more home-run-friendly ballpark. Expect Soto to hit over this number on the other side of New York City in Queens.
Soto should hit over this number also because he easily hit over this total last season with the Yankees.
Why Juan Soto Will Hit the Under
He will only hit the over if this big experiment does not work. The Mets have money to spend, and their owner, Steve Cohen, is willing to put his money where his mouth is. However, big spending does not always equate to success, and if there is just not a good fit, then it won't work, and he won't hit over this number of home runs.
Soto has also been a durable athlete in the MLB, only missing 10 days at a time so far in his career. However, there is always the possibility of an injury, especially with how long MLB seasons are. That would be the extreme instance in which Soto does not hit this number and misses a lot due to injuries.
It is less likely that either of those instances will happen, and it does not seem like Soto is taking any steps back. Soto is more likely to hit it than not, the way I view these odds.
Final Juan Soto 2025 Home Run Over/Under Total Prediction & Pick
Juan Sot is one of the best players in the MLB and can absolutely crush the baseball. He hit over this number this past season with 41 home runs and is not getting any worse, either. Juan Soto is primed to dominate with his new team in Queens, and you should expect him to hit over this number in home runs, too. He is just too good to take the under despite all the newness around him.
Final Juan Soto 2025 Over/Under Home Run Total Prediction & Pick: Over 34.5 Home Runs: (+102)
