The UFC is back in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this upcoming Prelim bout in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Brazil's own Julia Polastri will take on veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz of Poland in an interesting matchup. Check our UFC odds series for the Polastri-Kowalkiewicz prediction and pick.
Julia Polastri (13-5) has gone 1-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2024. After an impressive win over Cory McKenna via split decision, she dropped her most recent bout against Loopy Godinez in convincing fashion. She'll look to please her home country fans as the heavy favorite over a veteran of the division. Polastri stands 5-foot-2 with a 63.5-inch reach.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9) has gone 9-9 since joining the UFC back in 2015. She's faced just about everyone she can in the Strawweight Division, but she's dropped her last two bouts to young prospects like Iasmin Lucindo and Denise Gomes. She'll hope to break this losing streak and get back in the win column. Kowalkiewicz stands 5-foot-3 with a 64-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz Odds
Julia Polastri: -455
Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +350
Over 2.5 rounds: -445
Under 2.5 rounds: +310
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Julia Polastri Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Loopy Godinez – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Julia Polastri was significantly out-matched by Loopy Godinez during his last fight, keeping pace in the striking department but falling to five takedowns and significant ground control time. The loss isn't all too bad given the rising stock of Godinez as a true contender, but it revealed a gap in Polastri's game when it comes to the grappling. Look for her to make noticeable improvements to her wrestling following her last fight.
At just 27 years old, Polastri continues to evolve as a mixed martial artist and putting all her skills together. She'll be the quicker, more athletic fighter during this matchup, but she'll need to be careful in not falling into any veteran traps from Kowalkiewicz. While this is a noticeable step-up in competition for Polastri, she seems ready for the moment and the reasonable betting favorite.
As long as Polastri can avoid the jab of Kowalkiewicz, she should be able to find her striking rhythm throughout this fight. Expect her 58% takedown defense to be tested throughout this bout, but if she's able to keep her opponent standing and in boxing range, Polastri should come away with the decision victory thanks to her hands.
Why Karolina Kowalkiewicz Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Denise Gomes – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is in the latter part of her career where she's remaining relevant with intermittent wins, but constantly being tasked with fighting young up-and-coming fighters. This puts her in a challenging position, constantly having to evolve her game at almost 40 years old. Nevertheless, she's proven herself with a four-fight winning streak through 2023, so she's ready to get back in the win column against another younger contender.
Kowalkiewicz's last five-straight fights have gone towards a decision as she's notched 12 wins on the scorecards during her career. At this point, she's still extremely tough and hard to put away for opponents. If she can weather the early striking storm from Polastri, she could have a chance to turn the tide in the later rounds as the fighter with the better cardio.
Furthermore, Kowalkiewicz can test the wrestling of Polastri knowing she gave up five takedowns during her last fight, so don't be surprised if we see an aggressive version of Kowalkiewicz during this bout. She'll have to find the striking openings herself, but it should open the opportunity for several looks at takedowns.
Final Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction & Pick
Both fighters should be very motivated coming into this bout given their most recent losses. Julia Polastri is looking to establish herself within the division as Karolina Kowalkiewicz tries to steal her hype as a surging veteran. Polastri is the rightful favorite here thanks to her youth and striking, but Kowalkiewicz can certainly make this a fight if she's able to push her opponent in the later rounds.
I don't believe Karolina Kowalkiewicz will threaten with a finish during this fight and she's not much at-risk of getting finished herself. Ultimately, if Polastri is able to stuff the takedowns and keep Kowalkiewicz from clinching with her, we should see a masterclass on the feet in terms of her volume striking.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Julia Polastri to get the win as the betting favorite, likely controlling all three rounds en route to a unanimous decision on the judges' scorecards.
Final Julia Polastri-Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction & Pick: Julia Polastri (-455); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-445)
