It's time for yet another betting prediction and pick as we continue our coverage of UFC Rio with this next Prelim in the Women's Bantamweight (135) Division. Brazil's Beatriz Mesquita will make her UFC debut against Russia's Irina Alekseeva in what should be a fun scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Mesquita-Alekseeva prediction and pick.
Beatriz Mesquita (5-0) will make her promotional debut just five fights into her professional career. Since 2024, she's gone a perfect 4-0 under LFA and most recently won a title belt. She's currently ranked No. 31 in the North American women's pound-for-pound rankings, debuting here as the massive betting favorite. Mesquita stands 5-foot-4 with a 66-inch reach.
Irina Alekseeva (5-3) has gone 1-2 since joining the UFC in 2023. After winning her debut in convincing fashion, she's dropped back-to-back bouts against Melissa Mullins and Klaudia Sygula. Now, she'll need to improve her game and get back in the win column as the underdog here. Alekseeva stands 5-foot-8 with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Beatriz Mesquita-Irina Alekseeva Odds
Beatriz Mesquita: -535
Irina Alekseeva: +400
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Beatriz Mesquita Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Sierra Dinwoodie – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Beatriz Mesquita will be making her long-awaited UFC debut following a perfect 4-0 run in LFA that saw her finish three fights and gain a championship belt. While she's fresh into her MMA career, Mesquita is a high-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt that has been competing at the top of ADCC since 2011. She's terrifying to deal with on the ground and joins a new crop of submission specialists entering the UFC out of Brazil.
She's been able to translate her jiu jitsu in the gi to MMA very fluidly, already notching three wins by rear naked choke. She'll have a plethora of submissions to work with in this fight and she will be confident knowing she's the better grappler in this matchup. Still, Alekseeva is also known for her grappling, so Mesquita will need to earn respect early with offense on the feet.
Still, it's only a matter of time before Mesquita will land the takedown and begin chasing a finish. She's well-known in Brazil as one of the top BJJ talents for quite some time, so she should get a ton of support from the home crowd as she chases the finish.
Why Irina Alekseeva Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Klaudia Sygula – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
After making a ton of noise following her UFC debut win over Stephanie Egger, Irina Alekseeva has failed to improve in her two subsequent appearances. She's been controlled in the striking over her last two bouts, oftentimes falling behind early and failing to catch up in the later rounds. She may have a slight striking advantage over Mesquita during this fight, but it's the constant takedowns she'll have to worry about come this Saturday.
Alekseeva owns two wins by submission in her own right, but it's doubtful she's ever grappled against someone with the level of jiu jitsu Mesquita possesses. Still, Alekseeva does a great job of forcing her opponents to a dirty, scrappy fight, so she'll be looking to do the same against the debuting opponent. Despite being a sizable underdog, Alekseeva is still a stern step-up in competition from what Mesquita is typically used to.
To win this fight, Alekseeva will have to stuff the takedowns with authority while keeping her opponent on the feet. From there, she should look to land elbows and back her opponent up against the fence. The more chaotic she can create the exchanges, the more she'll have a chance to land a lopping punch and sit her opponent down.
Final Beatriz Mesquita-Irina Alekseeva Prediction & Pick
While Beatriz Mesquita comes into this bout as the heavy betting favorite, it's worth noting that it's still her debut fight and Irina Alekseeva will be a significant step-up in competition for her. Nevertheless, her experience as a top-level elite grappler should carry her throughout this debut bout.
All in all, Alekseeva really only has a chance her if she's able to stuff the takedowns and force her opponent to a wild scrap. Otherwise, if Mesquita is able to land consistent takedowns, it'll only be a matter of time before she's able to find a submission and lock it in.
For our final betting prediction, let's roll with Beatriz Mesquita to win this fight as she does so in the opening round.
Final Beatriz Mesquita-Irina Alekseeva Prediction & Pick: Beatriz Mesquita (-535); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (+120)
