Contender Series Week 9 continues with a fight between Donavon Hedrick and Luis Felipe Dias in the middleweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Hedrick-Dias prediction and pick.
Donavon Hedrick (6-0) enters this pivotal Contender Series showdown riding a perfect finishing streak. In his most recent outing at Combat Night, Hedrick delivered a devastating 42-second knockout against Franklin Torres. He brings finishing instincts and raw power, which could help him get the biggest win of his career against Luis Felipe Dias as he seeks to secure his UFC contract on Week 9 of the Contender Series.
Luis Felipe Dias (15-5) rebounded from his KO loss to Luiz Cado with first-round finishes over Daniel Oliveira and Helison Cruz in 2023. He’s proven his finishing ability as he comes into this matchup to secure his spot on Week 9 of Contender Series.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Donavon Hedrick-Luis Felipe Dias Odds
Donavon Hedrick: -105
Luis Felipe Dias: -125
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Why Donavon Hedrick will win
- Last Fight: (W) Franklin Torres – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Donovan Hedrick possesses the kind of devastating knockout power that changes fights in an instant, evident through his 83% finishing rate with five brutal KO/TKO victories. His most recent performance against Franklin Torres showcased this murderous power, needing just 42 seconds to end the fight with crushing strikes.
While Luis Felipe Dias possesses excellent submission skills, his striking defense has proven questionable throughout his career. His flat-footed movement and tendency to absorb damage makes him susceptible to Hedrick's explosive power shots, particularly early in fights when both men are fresh.
Hedrick has never needed to fight past 2:48 in any professional bout, demonstrating his ability to end fights quickly when opportunities present themselves. His ground-and-pound game remains underrated, having finished Daniel Cooper with a rear naked choke and dominated multiple opponents on the mat with heavy strikes.
Though Dias brings significantly more professional experience, his recent 2-2 record in his last four fights suggests declining performance levels. Hedrick's perfect finishing rate, combined with his physical advantages and activity edge, positions him to secure his UFC contract through early aggression and overwhelming power as he comes into this matchup to secure his spot on Week 9 of Contender Series.
Why Luis Felipe Dias will win
- Last Fight: (W) Daniel Oliveira – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 (7 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Luise Felipe Dias possesses world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu with a devastating submission arsenal that includes seven tapout victories, showcasing his ability to finish fights from any position on the ground. His recent performances demonstrate this perfectly, submitting Daniel Oliveira with a rear naked choke in just 40 seconds and finishing Helisom Cruz with a 28-second TKO in 2023.
While Hedrick boasts knockout power, his grappling credentials remain completely untested against elite-level grapplers like Dias. The American's wrestling background appears minimal, and once Dias secures takedowns, Hedrick will find himself in extremely dangerous territory against one of the most creative submission artists in the division.
Dias demonstrates superior fight IQ with his patient striking approach, utilizing effective leg kicks and a solid jab to set up his takedown attempts. His ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly gives him multiple pathways to victory, while Hedrick relies primarily on early knockout power.
Final Donavon Hedrick-Luis Felipe Dias Prediction & Pick
Donavon Hedrick versus Luis Felipe Dias on Week 9 of the Contender Series presents a classic battle of youth and power against experience and skill. Hedrick enters undefeated at 6-0, carrying a perfect finishing streak and explosive knockout power virtually unmatched at this level. His aggressive, all-out style makes him a dangerous threat early in the fight.
Dias, with a record of 15-5, brings substantially more experience and a diverse skill set to the cage. His elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu and proven submission ability give him avenues to win beyond striking exchanges. Dias also has demonstrated patience, fight IQ, and the composure needed to weather early storms and capitalize as opponents tire.
While Hedrick’s raw power could end the fight quickly, Dias’ tactical approach and experience should allow him to survive the early onslaught. He can use his grappling to take the fight to the ground, where Hedrick’s lack of experience could be exposed. Additionally, Dias’ striking mix, including heavy leg kicks and long jab, will help him control distance and frustrate the younger fighter.
This fight likely comes down to whether Hedrick can land a decisive early knockout. If not, Dias will assert his control, gradually breaking down the power puncher. Therefore, Luis Felipe Dias is favored to win by submission or decision, leveraging experience and technical prowess to secure the victory and earn his UFC contract on Week 9 of Contender Series.
Final Donavon Hedrick-Luis Felipe Dias Prediction & Pick: Luis Felipe Dias (-125)
