Contender Series Week 9 kicks off with a fight between Rafael Pergentino and Luke Fernandez in the light heavyweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Pergentino-Fernandez prediction and pick.
Rafael Pergentino (5-0) enters Contender Series on a five-fight win streak, having just submitted Eduardo Garnier via rear-naked choke in May. Previously, he stopped Sandro Santos and Luis Rodrigues with first-round TKOs, showcasing heavy hands and opportunistic grappling. Pergentino’s 60% KO rate and two submission wins highlight his finishing ability as he comes into this matchup to secure his UFC contract on Week 9 of Contender Series.
Luke Fernandez (5-0) stays unbeaten, coming off a dominant decision over Christian Edwards in May to retain his CFFC light heavyweight title. Earlier, Fernandez finished Gregg Ellis with a first-round knockout, making it four straight wins by KO or TKO. He’s shown versatile finishing ability as he comes into this matchup to secure his spot in the UFC's light heavyweight division on Week 9 of Contender Series.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Rafael Pergentino-Luke Fernandez Odds
Rafael Pergentino: +380
Luke Fernandez: -580
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Why Rafael Pergentino will win
- Last Fight: (W) Eduardo Garnier – SUB R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Rafael Pergentino’s finishing instincts and diverse attack can be the difference in this intriguing light heavyweight matchup. Pergentino brings a patient yet dangerous style, combining legitimate knockout power with opportunistic submissions—three wins by KO/TKO and two by rear-naked choke highlight his complete arsenal. He’s comfortable standing and aiming for fight-changing shots, but savvy enough to exploit any grappling mistake for a sudden tap.
Against Fernandez, who thrives with forward pressure and striking volume, Pergentino’s poise under fire will be crucial. The Brazilian stays composed in heated exchanges, picking his moments to counter hard or shoot when Fernandez overextends. Fernandez’s aggression and tendency to blitz for knockouts can occasionally leave his chin open, and Pergentino’s counter-punching could find opportunities.
Moreover, Pergentino’s ability to fight out of bad positions and his proven finishing rate in the second round make him especially dangerous if the contest extends past the opening frame. Should Fernandez look to get the fight down or enforce a clinch, Pergentino’s submission skills and top-game transitions give him multiple paths to a finish.
With experience finding finishes from unexpected angles and the confidence of remaining undefeated, Pergentino has the tools to outlast an aggressive Fernandez and score another stoppage, earning a potential UFC contract on Week 9 of the Contender Series.
Why Luke Fernandez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Christian Edwards – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 (4 KO/TKO)
Luke Fernandez enters Week 9 of the Contender Series determined to showcase his championship pedigree and fight-ending power against Rafael Pergentino. Fernandez has proven he can dominate tough opposition with a combination of heavy hands and relentless forward pressure, recording four of his five wins by knockout or TKO. His confidence grows as he closes distance and controls exchanges, often breaking opponents’ composure with non-stop aggression.
Fernandez’s championship experience on the regional circuit has cultivated a well-rounded game. He’s not simply a brawler—his ability to box at range, cut off the cage, and mix in body work complements his explosive finishing instincts. While Pergentino thrives on composure and opportunistic counters, Fernandez excels at dictating the pace and forcing mistakes from those backing up under fire.
If Pergentino attempts to stall or look for openings in grappling, Fernandez’s improved takedown defense and clinch strength can keep the fight upright, where his striking advantages shine. By staying disciplined and turning up the volume each round, Fernandez puts opponents in survival mode, converting that pressure into late finishes or decisive scorecards.
Expect Fernandez to set the tone early, punish Pergentino with power shots, and pull away as the fight progresses. His superior offensive output and experience under the spotlight could be the key to earning the win and a UFC contract this Tuesday.
Final Rafael Pergentino-Luke Fernandez Prediction & Pick
Luke Fernandez vs. Rafael Pergentino profiles as a showcase for Fernandez’s pace, durability, and strength of schedule. Fernandez has proven five-round readiness in CFFC title fights and brings a reliable blend of pressure boxing, dirty clinch work, and functional wrestling that travels well in the smaller Apex cage.
Pergentino’s undefeated record and finishing rate are real threats, but his résumé features limited high-level opposition and questions about how his power and grappling translate at light heavyweight under UFC oversight. If early counters don’t land clean, extended exchanges favor Fernandez’s volume, cage-wrestling, and clinch control.
Expect Fernandez to smother entries, stuff reactive shots, and work the body before opening up hooks up top. His ability to win minutes with fence control and short combinations should blunt Pergentino’s set-piece bursts and force defensive grappling reactions.
If Pergentino tires after fast starts, Fernandez’s round-to-round pace widens the margin. The late-fight optics and damage profile should tilt judges, or produce attritional finishing chances as space opens. Ultimately, Luke Fernandezshould get it done via early to mid-round TKO to earn his spot on the UFC roster.
Final Rafael Pergentino-Luke Fernandez Prediction & Pick: Luke Fernandez (-580)
