The UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Main Card continues to excite as we're back with another betting prediction and pick for the next bout taking place in the Heavyweight Division. Brazil's rising prospect Jhonata Diniz will welcome Portugal's newcomer Mario Pinto in a close matchup on the betting lines. Check our UFC odds series for the Diniz-Pinto prediction and pick.
Jhonata Diniz (9-1) has gone 3-1 inside the UFC since earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series in 2023. After suffering his first UFC loss to Marcin Tybura, he responded with a recent win over Alvin Hines in dominant fashion. Now, he'll be the short betting favorite against another hungry prospect. Diniz stands 6-foot-4 with a 79.5-inch reach.
Mario Pinto (10-0) will make his second walk to the UFC cage following a successful debut bout over Austen Lane. He earned a round-one knockout in DWCS and his round-two knockout of Lane earned him a performance bonus – don't sleep on Mario Pinto as the live betting underdog here. Pinto stands 6-foot-6 with a 79-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Jhonata Diniz-Mario Pinto Odds
Jhonata Diniz: -135
Mario Pinto: +114
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
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Why Jhonata Diniz Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Alvin Hines – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO
Jhonata Diniz was tasked with an extremely dangerous, experienced kickboxer in Alvin Hines his last time out, but quickly found his opponent's rhythm and counteracted with his own offense. Diniz was able to cut Hines early and controlled most of the second and third rounds with his volume striking. He has very fast hands at this weight class and he's proven time and time again that he can withstand an opponent's best punch.
Diniz is currently landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute at a 56% accuracy, certainly more active than his opponent. He'll be dealing with a small heigh discrepancy, but Diniz has proven his ability to close the distance and do his damage from inside the pocket. He's able to generate more power from the clinch as opposed to Pinto's longer frame, which works well at striking range. Expect Diniz to negate a ton of Pinto's offense by trying to press him along the fence.
Diniz is also defensively-minded when it comes to the striking and defends 59% of attempts coming back his way. He's not likely to attempt any takedowns here and given his opponent's Muay Thai style, we should see this fight almost exclusively take place on the feet. The longer Diniz can take Pinto into the deeper rounds, the more it should favor him in a decision.
Why Mario Pinto Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Austen Lane – KO (right hook, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Mario Pinto has looked like a steamroller in each of his first two UFC appearances. Tasked with another dangerous finisher in Austen Lane for his UFC debut, Pinto patiently read Lane's striking a moved for the eventual finish. At 6-foot-6 with a 79-inch reach, he's certainly a long striker and generates a ton of power if he's able to land clean. Against a volume puncher like Diniz, he'll want to maintain and control the distance throughout this one.
Pinto has been able to time each of his opponents up to this point, achieving an impressive 71% accuracy on his significant strikes. With three of his last four fights ending inside the distance, it certainly doesn't take many clean strikes from Pinto to eventually hurt his opponents and close the finish. He has yet to taste the feeling of defeat in his pro MMA career, so the aura of confidence could help him in finishing the fight.
Ultimately, Diniz will throw various striking looks at Pinto throughout this fight in order to frustrate him. Pinto's main focus will be controlling the striking distance and using his elbows on the clinch breaks once Diniz eventually ties up with him. From there, he can look to work his kickboxing where he'll eventually be able to find an opening.
Final Jhonata Diniz-Mario Pinto Prediction & Pick
Both fighters come into this bout with a high level of boxing and Muay Thai experience behind them. Jhonata Diniz may be the better “pure boxer” of the two thanks to the fluidity of his hands and combinations, but Mario Pinto is certainly more equipped from a kickboxing standpoint with his rangier style and long leg kicks.
Diniz is the rightful favorite here due to his experience. He's seen more looks at this level and although Mario Pinto has made his past competition look easy, Diniz will easily be the toughest test of his career.
Still, the betting line is extremely close here and given his 100% takedown defense and ability to control where the fight takes place, there's no harm in taking a chance on the underdog in this fight with Mario Pinto. Expect a close striking matchup, but in the end it's Pinto's variability and low calf kicks that earn him the win here.
Final Jhonata Diniz-Mario Pinto Prediction & Pick: Mario Pinto (+114)
