UFC heavyweight veteran Justin Tafa (7-5, one no-contest) returns to the Octagon to face debutant Louie Sutherland (10-3) at UFC Perth. It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Justin Tafa-Louie Sutherland prediction and pick.
Tafa, 31, is making his return seven months after his last fight, a first-round TKO loss to Tallison Teixeira at UFC 312. The loss dropped his promotional record to 4-5, with one no-contest, including a 2-2 record in Australia. ‘The Bad Man' returns to center stage with his job potentially on the line in his home country, looking to snap a two-fight skid.
Sutherland, 31, makes his debut three months after knocking out Luke Newland in the first round at Levels Fight League 18. The win was his fourth consecutive and eighth by knockout, giving him an 80 percent knockout rate. Prior to his UFC debut, Sutherland had three fights with the PFL, going 2-1 in the smart cage.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Justin Tafa-Louie Sutherland Odds
Justin Tafa: -118
Louie Sutherland: -102
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Justin Tafa Will Win
Tafa has not performed well in the UFC, but he does have extensive experience in the Octagon. This fight will be his 11th UFC fight, making up over 75 percent of his career in the promotion.
His record suggests mediocrity, but Tafa is still dangerous when he is given the opportunity to strike. Tafa has a 100 percent knockout rate, with all four of his UFC victories in the first round. Sutherland is not the type of fighter to pose a significant wrestling threat and will give Tafa the fight he wants on the feet.
Aside from his loss to Yorgan De Castro, in which he was punished for recklessly charging forward, Tafa mostly struggles with a lack of volume and offensive diversity. Cardio is not necessarily an issue, but Tafa's output tends to fade in the later rounds if he does not get an early knockout. That should not be too much of an issue in front of his home crowd against Sutherland, who averaged fewer than 25 strikes landed in his three PFL fights.
Why Louie Sutherland Will Win
Although he will have to enter enemy territory, Sutherland gets a fairly manageable test in his debut. Tafa is one of the most experienced unranked heavyweights, but he is clearly on the final legs of his UFC career.
Of Tafa's nine UFC opponents, only two of them — Tallison Teixeira and Austen Lane — are still in the promotion. Lane, who is 1-4 with one no-contest in the Octagon, is the only active UFC fighter that he has a win over.
The four fighters that Tafa has beaten in the UFC — Harry Hunsucker, Parker Porter, Juan Adams and Lane — have just one combined knockdown in 25 total promotional bouts. Tafa cruises when he faces heavyweights without one-punch knockout power, and he tends to struggle against those who pose a substantial power threat.
If his regional record is any indication, Sutherland should fit into the latter category. He certainly looks the part and has delivered on an 80 percent knockout rate. All but one of his knockout victories have come in the first round.
Final Justin Tafa-Louie Sutherland Prediction & Pick
Longtime UFC fans might not have much faith in Tafa at this point in his career, which makes the newcomer an enticing pick. At even odds, it is more exciting if Sutherland hits the ground running and establishes himself as a threat in the division against Tafa, like Tallison Teixeira did in February.
While it is certainly a possibility, Sutherland does not seem like the guy fans want him to be. He enters the UFC with a mere 1-2 record in the PFL, and his losses have been very discouraging. The majority of his strikes come one at a time with nothing setting them up, and he is often too gun-shy in situations where he should be thriving. Tafa might be limited in his own right, but this fight could truly be one that will highlight the vast experience gap between the two fighters.
Sutherland looks like a scary knockout artist, and he seems to have enough power to be a threat early in the fight. But this situation, in front of a crowd that is going to be roaring for Tafa, makes for a sneakily difficult debut. If Sutherland connects early, Tafa has not handled adversity well in his career. Otherwise, this should be another highlight Down Under for ‘The Bad Man.'
Final Justin Tafa-Louie Sutherland Prediction & Pick: Justin Tafa (-118)
