It's time for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Perth as we take a look at this next Prelim bout in the Women's Bantamweight (135) Division. Brazil's No. 15-ranked Luana Carolina will take on the debuting Michelle Montague of New Zealand. Check our UFC odds for the Carolina-Montague prediction and pick.
Luana Carolina (11-4) has gone 6-3 inside the UFC since 2019. Most recently taking down Lucie Pudilova via unanimous decision, Carolina has notched three-straight wins heading into this bout. She missed weight during one of those wins, so she'll also look to dial-in her shape ahead of this one. Carolina stands 5-foot-6 with a 69-inch reach.
Michelle Montague (6-0) will be making her UFC debut with an undefeated record. She's gone 4-0 under the PFL promotion and 1-0 inside Bellator, ranked worldwide as the No. 11 Featherweight. Fighting in front of a home Aussie crowd, she'll look to deliver as the betting favorite. Montague stands 5-foot-9 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Luana Carolina-Michelle Montague Odds
Luana Carolina: +185
Michelle Montague: -225
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Luana Carolina Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Lucie Pudilova – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Luana Carolina comes into this fight following yet another dominant win on the feet, out-striking her opponent 114-62. Her Muay Thai striking has become much more consistent over her last three fights as she's constantly able to find a home in the jab. Her reach won't be much of an advantage over her opponent, but the way she's able to close the distance and use it is what makes her so effective.
Carolina will be looking to push another high pace in this fight, currently landing 4.81 significant strikes per minute. She's been KO'd and submitted once time each, but she's become increasingly difficult to put away over her last few fights. Her physical shape on the scales will be worth monitoring as she's missed weight in the past, but her most recent appearance should indicate she's ready to go.
Ultimately, Carolina will have to utilize her impressive 74% takedown defense in keeping this fight off the ground. Montague is known for her submission capabilities and given the debut jitters, she'll likely be searching for a finish throughout this one. Carolina's best strategy will be to defend her base and continue peppering the jabs as he opponent grows tired.
Why Michelle Montague Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Marilia Morais – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 SUB
Michelle Montague has had an impressive run through the regional and professional scene, posting an unbeaten record and finishing all six of her pro fights by submission. Furthermore, all six submissions have been by way of rear naked choke with three of those coming in the first round. If she manages to take Carolina's back at any point of this fight, we could be in for another quick finish from the New Zealand native.
Montague has been widely successful in taking her opponents down via the double-leg and single-leg techniques. While Carolina may have a solid takedown defense to combat this, Montague is relentless in getting fights to the ground where she can easily finish. Ahead of this UFC debut, we can also expect to see new wrinkles to her ground-and-pound game as well.
Montague's striking game is still up for debate and she'll certainly have a lot to prove in gaining Carolina's respect during this fight. It'll be interesting to see how long she waits before attempting her first takedown, but we can expect to see multiple attempts throughout the first round unless she's able
Final Luana Carolina-Michelle Montague Prediction & Pick
Given the betting odds, Michelle Montague is the favorite to win this fight. However, given the total over set at 2.5 rounds, oddsmakers are expecting this fight to potential go the distance. It's worth noting Luana Carolina, the underdog, has notched seven of her 11 wins by decision while only dropping two.
Still, the grappling of Michelle Montague is highly-touted and her previous opponent haven't been able to stop her yet. However, her opponents' combined record in her six fights is just 12-8, so this will be a massive step-up in competition for Montague.
Nevertheless, we have to like the energy of the home crowd and I expect her to feel the momentum as the fans cheer her on. Montague should secure numerous submissions in the first two rounds, ultimately finding the submission and ending this fight early for a spectacular debut.
Final Luana Carolina-Michelle Montague Prediction & Pick: Michelle Montague (-225); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+120)
