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The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals face off in the second game of this series. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Cardinals prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Marlins have come out of the break struggling. They have now lost four straight games after being swept by the Orioles and losing game one of the series to the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won three of four since the break, but are still tied for last in the NL Central. Yesterday was a 6-4 victory for the Cardinals. Scoring opened in the bottom of the second as Bryan De La Cruz his 11th home run of the year off of Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals would tie it up again in the bottom of the third as Nolan Arenado hit a single for his first RBI of the day.
Luis Arraez and his “see the ball, hit the ball” mentality came through in the fifth as he drove in a run on a single. Once again, Nolan Arenado struck back, driving in his second run of the game in the fifth before Jordan Walker gave the Cardinals the lead on a single. In the sixth inning, Normal Arenado hit a double that scored two runs, and that would be enough for the Cardinals to get the win. The Marlins would score another run in the top of the seventh, but it would not be enough to avoid their fourth straight loss. The Marlins are now 53-43 on the season, and still in second in the NL East. They are also still in a wild-card spot, but the Phillies are just a half-game back.
Here are the Marlins-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cardinals Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-164)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+136)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Cardinals
TV: BSFL/BSMW
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:45 PM ET/ 4:45 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins offense is scoring 3.75 runs per game since the All-Star break. While that is low, it is not far from their season average. This year the Marlins rank 22nd in runs scored, and average 4.18 runs per game. The issue has been the pitching. As a staff, the Marlins rank 13th in team ERA, 15th in WHIP, and 17th in opponent batting average. They have a team ERA of 4.09, but they are giving up 5.5 runs per game since the All-Star break.
Edward Cabrera will be coming off the 15-day IL to make the start in this one. He is 5-5 on the season with a 4.70 ERA. He was having a solid month of June before his injury. In his first two starts, he pitched 11 innings and gave up just one run. His last one was five runs in just four innings and then a trip to the IL. Still, Cabrera was 2-1 on the month with a 3.60 ERA.
When Cabrera has won this year, it is because he gets plenty of run support. He is averaging receiving five runs of support per win this year. Bryan De La Cruz will be hoping to give him plenty of support tonight. He hit his second home run of the month yesterday while driving in his ninth run. He has not been hitting great this month, hitting just .240, but De La Cruz has scored six times and hit three doubles to go along with his home runs and RBIs. Luis Arraez is hoping to improve on his month. He is hitting .308 this month, but that would be his lowest batting average of any month this year. He has driven in just five runs and only scored four times this month as well.
The hottest bat on the team belongs to Dane Myers. Myers has seven hits in his last three games, and since making his major league debut on July 4th, has hit .444. He also has a .459 OBP in that time, while driving in eight runs. He has been slugging well, with two doubles and a home run bringing his OPS to 1.043. Joining Myers with a hot bat is Jean Segura. He is hitting .313 this month, but the power and RBI numbers have not come along with the hits. He has just five RBIS with no home runs. Segura has a double and a triple while slugging .375.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinal's offense has not been bad this year, sitting 11th in runs scored and batting average, while sitting seventh in on-base percentage and slugging. Yesterday it was Nolan Arenado who was driving in runs, and he leads the team with 20 home runs and 68 RBIs. His home run total places him 15th in the majors, while he is sixth in RBIs. Arenado has been on fire in the last month. He is hitting .340 in July with a .393 OBP. He also has four home runs and seven doubles, which has led to him driving in 14 runs. Arenado has added to his month by scoring nine times on the month.
Nolan Gorman has come out of the All-Star break hot. He is hitting .429 aince the break while hitting two doubles and a home run. He leads the team with 11 total bases since the break. and has scored five times. While he has four RBIs, he is not the team leader since the break. That is Brendan Donovan. While playing in just three of the four games he has a double, a triple, and a home run. This has led to him driving in six runs, the same as Arenado since the break. Meanwhile, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, and Paul DeJong all join Nolan Gorman in hitting over .400 in the four games since the All-Star break.
On the hill for the Cardinals, today will be Jordan Montgomery. He is 6-7 this year with a 3.23 ERA. He has been almost unhittable since the start of July. In his two starts so far this month, he has pitched 11 innings and given up just five hits. This has led to just two runs being scored and only one of them earned. That gives Montgomery a 0.82 ERA so far this month. He has been doing this for a while now. In June he gave up ten runs in five starts. Only six of those were earned, and he finished the month with a 1.71 ERA. If the defense can play well behind him, expect another good outing from Montgomery.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
While the Marlins are the better team, three major factors are working against them. First, their offense has not been great. It is not far off the mark, but still not to the level they want to be at. Second, the pitching matchup in this one heavily favors the Cardinals. The Marlins have not been getting good pitching, and even if Cabrera is solid, Montgomery will be better. Finally, the Cardinals' offense has been hot. With all of those factors, there is still hope for the Marlins. This should be a low-scoring game. Low scoring games tend to be close. With that, pick the Marlins to cover, but do not be surprised if the Cardinals win.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-164)
