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The Miami Marlins try to avoid their second straight sweep as they face the St. Louis Cardinals. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Cardinals prediction, pick, and how to watch.
In game one of the series, it was all about Nolan Arenado, as he drove in four runs in a 6-4 victory over the Marlins, including a two-run double in the sixth inning that gave them the lead. Last night, it was Arenado again. After a scoreless first four innings Luis Arraez and his “see the ball, hit the ball” mentality came through as he hit a sacrifice fly to center field. Brendon Donovan would tie up the game in the bottom of the sixth with a solo home run, but Jorge Soler struck back in the top of the seventh with an RBI single. Nolan Gorman drove in the second run of the game for the Cardinals in the bottom of the seventh, and the game remained tied into extra innings.
That is when Nolan Arenado showed up. He had already had a hit and a walk to that point of the game, but he came to the plate with two on in the bottom of the tenth. With one out, Paul DeJong was still at second base where he started the inning. Paul Goldschmidt has been intentionally walked. After a ground out by Lars Nootbar that advanced the runners, Arendao sent the second pitch he saw 389 feet to win the game. For the Cardinals, they are ten games out of first and starting to focus on next year. Arenado is focused on now though, as he had driven in seven runs in this series.
Here are the Marlins-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cardinals Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+164)
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-200)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Cardinals
TV: BSFL/BSMW
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:15 PM ET/ 11:15 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have lost their first five games coming out of the All-Star break, and now their last eight games on the road. The offense has struggled some since the break, slightly below their average on the season. This year the Marlins rank 23rd in runs scored, and average 4.16 runs per game. They are also sitting 15th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging but third in batting average.
The reason the batting average is so high is Luis Arraez. He is hitting .376 on the year, which leads the majors. Arraez is hoping to improve on his month. He is hitting .304 this month, but that would be his lowest batting average of any month this year. He has driven in just six runs and only scored four times this month as well. The hottest bat on the team belongs to Dane Myers. Myers has seven hits in his last four games, and since making his major league debut on July 4th, has hit .400. He also has a .415 OBP in that time, while driving in eight runs. He has been slugging well, with two doubles and a home run bringing his OPS to .940.
Joining Myers with a hot bat is Jon Berit. Last night he had another three hits with a triple and a stolen base, scoring twice. He is hitting .357 for the month, with five runs scored and three RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz is still providing the majority of RBIs for the team. He did not have one last night but did walk and have a hit. He is hitting just .241 on the month but has scored six times while driving in Nince. De La Cruz has also hit two home runs and three doubles.
The Marlins will be sending Sandy Alcantara to the mound for this one. While Alcantar Har struggled for most of the year, he has been good in his last two starts. Last time out he went six innings and have up just two runs. The time before that, it was 6.2 innings with just one run. Still, the Marlins did not win either of them, as they could not score enough runs of support. This year the Marlins are just 7-13 in games he has started.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinal's offense has not been bad this year, sitting tied for 11th in runs scored and 11th batting average, while sitting seventh in on-base percentage and slugging. Yesterday it was Nolan Arenado again who was driving in runs, and he leads the team with 21 home runs, 71 RBIs, and a .286 batting average. His home run total places him tied for 13th in the majors, while he is sixth in RBIs. Arenado has been on fire in the last month. He is hitting .353 on the month iwth a .410 on-base percentage. Arenado has scored ten times and hit five home runs with seven doubles. Most impressively, he has 17 RBIs with nine of them coming since the All-Star break.
Brendan Donovan continued his hot streak as well. With the solo home run last night, Donovan has RBIs in the last four games. This mother he has driven in ten runs with three home runs, a triple, and a double. Most of this work has come since the All-Star break. Since the break, he is 5-16 with two home runs and seven RBIs. Nolan Gorman has come out of the All-Star break hot as well. He is hitting .389 since the break while hitting three doubles and a home run. He leads the team with 14 total bases since the break, plus he had five RBIs which is good for third on the team since the break.
The Cardinals will send Dakota Hudson to the mound to make his first start of the year this year. As a reliever on the season, he is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in ten innings of work. He has appeared four times, and has not given up an earned run in three of that appearance. This will not be the first time Hudson has been used as a starter though. He started 26 games last year and had a 4.45 ERA with eight wins and seven losses.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
There are two major factors in this game. First is Sandy Alcantara. He has the worst ERA, xERA, xBA, and xSLG of his career right now. One of two things will happen down the stretch. He will either rebound and get back to his old self, or close. Alternatively, he could collapse and force the Marlins to make a tough decision. The other factor is going to be the Cardinals bullpen. Most likely the Cardinals will not have Hudson deep into this game. He has spent most of the year on the IL and he is just not ready to give five or six innings of solid work. The Cardinals have one of the worst bullpens in the league. If they do not score a lot of runs early, the Marlins will win.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+164)
