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UFC Louisville: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov continues on the main card with a fight in the welterweight division between Miguel Baeza and Punahele Soriano. Baeza is making his return to the Octagon after a two-year layoff and on the heels of three consecutive losses meanwhile, Soriano is making his first appearance in 2024 after losing back-to-back fights coming into this matchup. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Baeza-Soriano prediction and pick.
Miguel Baeza (10-3) is making his first appearance since April 2022 where Andre Fialho knocked him out. He has now lost three consecutive fights getting knocked out in back-to-back fights. After back-to-back fight cancelations due to injuries, Baeza is back this weekend looking to get back on track when he takes on Punahele Soriano at UFC Lousiville.
Punahele Soriano (9-4) has hit a rough patch with just 1 win in his last four fights with back-to-back losses to Dustin Stolzfus and Roman Kopylov. Soriano is now dropping down to welterweight for the first time in hopes of getting back on track when he takes on Miguel Baeza this weekend in Louisville.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: Miguel Baeza-Punahele Soriano Odds
Miguel Baeza: -200
Punahele Soriano: +170
Over 2.5 rounds: +190
Under 2.5 rounds: -240
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Why Miguel Baeza Will Win
Miguel Baeza will be making the walk to the Octagon this weekend for the first time since April 2022 after injuries derailed two matchups in 2022 and 2023. Baeza is coming off three consecutive losses and back-to-back knockout losses as he makes the walk to the Octagon looking to get back on track this weekend against former middleweight Punahele Soriano.
When Baeza made his debut on the Contender Series back in 2019 many believed he would be a big splash in the welterweight division and he did with with three consecutive knockouts to start his career. Then a matchup with Santiago Ponzinibbio was deemed to be the start of his downfall as dropped three in a row. Baeza is known for his long-range striking with crushing calf kicks and devastating power in his hands. Early in his UFC career Baeza did a good job at utilizing his height and reach to keep his opponents at bay which is something he must do in this matchup against the dangerous Soriano. This is going to be a dangerous fight but as long as Baeza can keep away from the power strikes of Soriano he can pick him apart potentially landing the kill shot midway through this fight.
Why Punahele Soriano Will Win
Punahele Soriano has hit a rough patch as of late with back-to-back losses where he was finished in both fights against Dustin Stolzfus and Roman Kopylov. Soriano has now lost four out of his last five fights and could potentially be fighting for his career this weekend. He moves down in weight to compete in welterweight for the first time in his career when he takes on Miguel Baeza this weekend at UFC Louisville.
After securing his contract on the Contender Series, Soriano burst onto the scene with vicious knockouts of Oskar Piechota and Dusko Todorovic. Since those two brutal knockouts, he has gone 1-4 in his next five fights which have prompted his move down a weight class to face off against another struggling fighter Miguel Baeza. In this matchup, Soriano is going to need to pressure Baeza and not give him the space to operate at distance. From there, Soriano can land his strikes or even land takedowns and if he can do that he will have a great chance at getting back to his winning ways in his new weight class.
Final Miguel Baeza-Punahele Soriano Prediction & Pick
This fight in the welterweight is going to be an absolute barnburner for however long it lasts. These two powerful strikers will be looking to land the kill shot every moment they throw a strike which has the fight fans on the edge of their seats from start to finish. As for this matchup, it's going to come down to who lands the hardest first, and the way that Soriano fights with his forward-in-your-face pressure it is more likely that it will be him to land first. Ultimately, Baeza will look to land the calf kicks to keep Soriano from just barreling forward but Soriano will land heavy strikes off those calf kicks and that is when he will put him away, getting back on track in his new weight class.
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Final Miguel Baeza-Punahele Soriano Prediction & Pick: Punahele Soriano (+170), Under 2.5 Rounds (-240)
