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The Minnesota Twins will look to bounce back from a season where they missed the playoffs after a late-season collapse. Fans in Minneapolis have hope as we continue our MLB odds series with a Minnesota Twins over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Twins went 82-80 last season. After starting off the season strong and coming into August 17 with a record of 70-53, the Twins collapsed down the stretch for the second consecutive season, hoping 12-27 over their final 39 games to miss the playoffs again. The Twins have not had 90 wins since 2019 despite having the tools to do so.
The Twins added Ty France in the offseason, hoping the former All-Star infielder bolsters their roster. Then, they added Harrison Bader to their roster. However, the Twins lost Carlos Santana, Kyle Framer, Max Kepler, and Alex Kiriloff in the offseason.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -120
Under 83.5 Wins: -102
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Why You Should Bet the Over
In 2024, the Twins went 7-6 against the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, respectively. Additionally, they dominated the Chicago White Sox, going 12-1 over 13 games. There are some positives to talk about as the Twins attempt to rectify their luck lately.
The Twins have three superstars: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis. The positive here is that all three of these men can bash the baseball. Additionally, they have all done solid work over the years. Correa had a .388 OBP last season, which was the best of his 10-year career. Meanwhile, Lewis has hit 33 home runs over 152 games. Buxton hit .279 with 18 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 62 runs in 355 at-bats last season.
The rotation has some potential. Significantly, Pablo Lopez is durable and a strike thrower who is seeing an increased velocity. Lopez also has an improved sweeper that has generated a 33-percent chase rate. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan has ace potential and added a good spin to his sweeper and splitter last season. Ryan went 7-7 with a 3.60 ERA over 23 starts. Then, Bailey Ober flashed some potential. Ober has an elite extension from his three-quarters arm slot. However, his changeup helped turn things around last season, and he finished with a 12-9 mark with a 3.98 ERA.
Jhoan Duran is a closer who can do so much more. So far, he has been solid after going 6-9 with a 3.64 ERA and 23 saves, thanks to a triple-digit heater and a deceptive splitter. Griffin Jax has done well in the setup role, hurling a 97 MPH fastball with a good slider and changeup, which caused hitters to chase 38 percent of the time.
The Twins will win 84 games because Correa, Buxton, and Lewis can all have their best productive seasons in years. Then, their rotation takes the next step.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Twins went 3-10 against the Cleveland Guardians and 0-6 against the New York Yankees. Their inability to beat the top two teams in the American League was alarming, especially considering they did not exactly dominate other teams in their league.
Much of that was because of Correa, Buxton, and Lewis's inability to stay healthy. Unfortunately. that has been a recurring problem. When your stars are constantly on IL, it hurts the framework of the team, and kills any momentum. Plus, the Twins don't have any other solid options.
Jose Miranda is a good bad-ball hitter. Yet, he is not a star and is not expected to be one. Likewise, Brooks Lee has limited tools. Trevor Larnach is a platoon player. Also, Matt Wallner has a career 50.9 MPH hard-hit rate and has been really slow since being drafted in 2019. Ryan Jeffers is ridiculously aggressive, with a 34-percent chase rate. Willi Castro has a low ceiling.
Simeon Woods Richardson improved his velocity, but there are still questions about his consistency. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack is about six years removed from his breakout season, and has not done much since. The bullpen beyond Jax has major question marks.
The Twins will not win 84 games because their stars cannot stay healthy. Furthermore, their rotation is not where it needs to be, and their bullpen collapses at the worst times.
Final Twins Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Twins must improve. However, to do that, they must go out and do better against better teams. It has not happened. For whatever reason, they have collapsed down the stretch the past two seasons. I think the Twins have not done enough to improve. They have hovered around the .500 mark for four straight seasons. I don't see a change unless the rotation takes the next step. I can see them winning 83 games, barely missing the mark.
Final Twins Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 83.5 Wins: -102