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UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier kicks off the prelims with a fight in the flyweight division between promotional newcomer Mitch Raposo and Andre Lima. Raposo is coming into his short-notice UFC debut riding a four-fight winning streak meanwhile, Lima is still undefeated after coming off a disqualification victory in his UFC debut. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Raposo-Lima prediction and pick.
Mitch Raposo (9-1) gets his third crack at his shot on the big stage when he steps in on about two weeks notice this weekend at UFC 302. He got his shot on The Ultimate Fighter Season 29 where he lost in his match by decision and then got his chance on the Contender Series in 2021 only to lose to current UFC flyweight Jake Hadley. Now, after four consecutive finishes since then on the regional scene Raposo gets the call to face off against Andre Lima this weekend at UFC 302.
Andre Lima (8-0) secured his contract in the UFC with a victory in the Contender Series. He made his UFC debut in March with one of the most bizarre endings to a fight we will see. He was bit by his opponent Igor Severino resulting in a disqualification victory. Lima will look to show to the UFC brass that he is the real deal but getting his first victory inside the Octagon when he welcomes newcomer Mitch Raposo this weekend.
Here are the UFC 302 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 3022 Odds: Mitch Raposo-Andre Lima Odds
Mitch Raposo: +220
Andre Lima: -260
Over 2.5 rounds: -155
Under 2.5 rounds: +125
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Why Mitch Raposo Will Win
Mitch Raposo fighting Regiment Training Center and the New England Cartel started off his MMA career winning the first five of his professional bouts. That led to a shot on Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter where he lost to Liudvik Sholinian via decision. After the show was over, later that summer Raposo got his chance on the Contender Series but was submitted in round two. He vied to get back to the big even after those two setbacks and after a four-fight finish streak his third opportunity arose when he stepped in for Nyamjargal Tumendemberel on just about two week's notice to take on the undefeated Andre Lima.
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Raposo is as well-rounded as they come with the ability to either submit or knock out any opponent who stands in front of him. However, the opponent who stands in front of him is no easy task as the undefeated Brazilian Lima is as game as they come. In this matchup, Raposo will need to be the one who's pressing the action and putting Lima on his back foot and from there he can land his heavy strikes and mix in the takedowns where Lima is most vulnerable. If he can avoid fighting off his back foot allowing Lima to dictate where the fight takes place and utilize his grappling advantage in this fight he can get the biggest win of his career this weekend at UFC 302.
Why Andre Lima Will Win
Andre Lima secured his contract after a dominant performance against Rickson Zenidim on the Contender Series. Lima then made his UFC debut when he faced off against fellow unbeaten flyweight Igor Severino. In that fight, it ended abruptly when Severino bit Lima midway through round two when they were clinched up against the cage. There were apparent teeth marks on the bicep of Lima's arm and that resulted in Severino not only getting disqualified but also getting released from the promotion as well. Lima will be looking to keep his undefeated record intact when he welcomes Mitch Raposo to the Octagon this weekend at the Prudential Center.
Lima is a very diverse striker who likes to be the aggressor landing a flurry of strikes that overwhelm his opponents. He utilizes his calf kicks and deep kicks to the body to keep the fight at range. Then when he's able to cut off the cage that is when he lands in combination to the head and to the body. With this fight against Raposo, he's going to need to keep that pressure on him from the jump and make him fight off his back foot the entire fight. If Lima can do that, he can systematically break him down to either a late stoppage or a decision victory.
Final Mitch Raposo-Andre Lima Prediction & Pick
This is a fantastic fight to kick off this PPV event on the prelims in the men's flyweight division. As much as there is value in Raposo in this fight, this a tough stylistic matchup for him especially on short notice. On the feet, Lima will have a distinct advantage at range utilizing his kicks to keep him out of harm's way and then his slick combinations when he has Raposo backed up to the cage. Ultimately, the forward pressure of Lima will be too much for the Boston native, and as Lima fends off the takedowns he will start to gain confidence landing heavy strikes either putting Raposo away late or getting the nod on the judge's scorecards.
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Final Mitch Raposo-Andre Lima Prediction & Pick: Andre Lima (-260), Over 2.5 Rounds (-155)
