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The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox will conclude their four-game series in Chicago on Thursday. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes an Astros-White Sox prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Houston Astros are looking to salvage a split in this series after losing the first two in heartbreaking fashion. Houston is 76-43, the best record in the AL West, and the best record in the American League. Their +139 run differential is the third-best margin in the league.
Chicago is 61-57, sitting two games outside of both the final Wild Card spot and AL Central crown. Injuries have hampered the club all season, but the lineup is finally getting healthy. The starting rotation is anchored by Dylan Cease while waiting on a rebound from Lucas Giolito.
Here are the Astros-White Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-White Sox Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+122)
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston will send Luis Garcia to the mound, bringing with him a 4.03 ERA in 21 starts. Armed with average fastball velocity, Garcia's devastating breaking stuff holds batters at bay. In particular, Garcia's cutter, which sits about 86 mph, has held batters to a .156 batting average with 52 strikeouts. Garcia has been slightly prone to the longball, surrendering 18 home runs in his 118.1 innings. Houston's bullpen, statistically speaking, is the best in baseball. The group has registered a 2.89 ERA with 393 strikeouts in 355.1 innings. Ryne Stanek has been the best setup man in baseball, with a 1.09 ERA in his 44 appearances. Rafael Montero, despite a recent rough stretch, owns a 2.64 ERA with 7 saves in 50 appearances. Closer Ryan Pressley has been a steady contributor for a few years now, pitching to a 2.78 ERA with 24 saves this season.
The offense has not been an issue for nearly a decade in Houston. This season is no different, as Houston has launched 160 home runs, third in the league, and 208 doubles, ninth in the league. The offense is led by lefty slugger Yordan Alvarez, who has hit 31 home runs in 101 games, with a .296 batting average and .400 on-base percentage. Kyle Tucker is closing in on a 30-30 season, with 21 home runs and 18 stolen bases with just over two months to go. Alex Bregman leads the team with 30 doubles, rebounding from his horrid two-month stretch to begin the season. Almost no pitching staff has been able to neutralize this offense as Houston steamrolls into a nearly guaranteed playoff spot.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago has taken two of the first three games in this series, and winning this series could change things around. Lucas Giolito will take the mound in the fourth game of this series, going through a tough season thus far. Giolito has pitched to a 4.92 ERA in 21 starts. Giolito's walk rate has increased to an 8.7% mark, and his strikeout rate is down to 25.8%. Still, batters have swung and missed at 28.7% of Giolito's pitches, right in line with the league average. Looking under the hood, Giolito's velocity is down about a tick on his pitches, but if he can regain his old form, his season could rebound. Chicago's bullpen ranks 17th with a 3.89 ERA. Kendall Graveman has provided great relief, with a 2.72 ERA in 49 innings, while closer Liam Hendriks has saved 27 games with a 2.95 ERA.
At the plate, Chicago is missing Tim Anderson, who should miss about another month with a hand injury. Still, the meat of this lineup is healthy and clicking. Jose Abreu has a team-leading 14 home runs, 28 doubles, and a .309 batting average, hitting as he has since coming to the United States. Andrew Vaughn leads the team with 58 RBI, flashing the potential that led to him being selected in the first round of the 2019 draft. Luis Robert has battled injuries this season but has been fantastic when healthy, with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in his 83 games. With Anderson down, for the time being, Chicago has been linked to veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus, recently released by Oakland. Andrus would be an interesting addition and provide another steady veteran presence to this lineup.
Final Astros-White Sox Prediction & Pick
Both starters are struggling, but let's give the nod to Garcia and his cutter.
Final Astros-White Sox Prediction & Pick: Houston -1.5 (+122), under 8 (-105)
