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After a dramatic ending to Game 1 of this series, the Houston Astros will be seeking vengeance as they take on the New York Yankees on Friday. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Astros-Yankees prediction and pick will take place.
With a commanding 6-3 lead heading into the ninth inning, the Astros bullpen imploded and could not escape defeat by surrendering four runs in the bottom of the ninth. The loss was disappointing to say the least, but the sun always rises on another day. Tasked with evening up this series will be Justin Verlander, who is experiencing a crazy comeback after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last season, and has bounced back in 2022 with an 8-3 record and 2.30 ERA.
The Yankees continue to find ways to win, as their thrilling triumph over Houston on Friday improved their record to 52-18, including a stupendous 30-7 home record. Right-handed hurler Luis Severino will look to extend the Yankees winning ways with his 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Yankees MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Yankees Odds
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-200)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
The Astros were minutes from taking down the Yankees before their hopes and dreams were destroyed within the blink of an eye. While Houston was three outs away from stealing an important victory at Yankee Stadium, the Astros must quickly rebound if they want a chance to steal game two and cover the spread in doing so.
It's no question that the Astros have been on a roll as of late, and even despite the blown lead on Thursday, Houston presents as difficult of a challenge to New York than any other team could provide in all of baseball. Obviously, these two clubs are no strangers to one another in years past, so the Astros will try to use their familiarity with the ‘Yanks to their advantage.
Expect Houston's first step in overcoming the Yankees to come in the form of another fast start offensively, similar to yesterday's matchup when the ‘Stros scored three times in the game's opening frame. Now with exactly 300 runs scored, good for 16th most in the league, Houston hasn't always been productive at the plate, but the power in their bats certainly does not leave anything to be desired. On the season, the Astros are prone to hitting the ball a ways away with their .420 slugging percentage.
However, the key to covering the spread in this one will come down to the future Hall of Famer in Justin Verlander. Verlander has picked up right where he has left off over the years, as opposing hitters are only batting .230 against him. Even after getting roughed up by the White Sox last Saturday for seven runs on nine hits, it is rare for the 39-year-old to have back-to-back shaky outings. Regardless, Verlander hasn't faced the Yankees since 2019.
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
Just when you thought the Yankees were down and out, they proved the entire world of baseball wrong. After Aaron Hicks crushed a game-tying three-run shot into the night, it was the other Aaron who remains the best hitter in baseball that smacked the walk-off single to give New York the 7-6 come-from-behind victory. At this point, it seems like the baseball Gods will not let the Yankees lose, as they continue to stun their opponents by finding new ways to win ballgames.
Hands down one of the more prolific squads in the majors offensively and from the pitching sides of things, the reason why New York is such a tough out is because they don't have many weaknesses. It also helps to have a player who is on pace to hit 70 home runs in Aaron Judge.
Already with 27 home runs on the year, no one has come close to these numbers since the steroid era when hitting the long ball was the name of the game. Judge hasn't been the only Yankee prone to smacking the ball long distances, but the rest of the team is second in the entire league with a .441 slugging percentage. With the top offense in baseball, this is only one way that New York can cover the spread this evening.
Another way could come in the form of a former ace in Luis Severino, a name that like Verlander, was forced to miss a huge chunk of time due to Tommy John. Now in 2022, Severino has made his long-awaited return and has not disappointed. While Severino may have lost a fraction of his velocity on his fastball, he is still mixing up his pitches effectively and it has shown. The 28-year-old is coming off four straight starts with at least eight strikeouts and is seemingly returning to his old form.
Final Astros-Yankees Prediction & Pick
Lesson learned, no lead is safe in any game these two teams suit up for. With the stakes at an all-time high between a pair of American League contending squads, expecting anything other than a nail-biter is unreasonable.
Final Astros-Yankees Pick: Astros +1.5 (-200)
