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The Atlanta Braves will take on the Colorado Rockies on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Rockies prediction and pick.
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The Braves have been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season. After their World Series victory, many expected Atlanta to at least be one of the best teams in their division. Instead, the Braves are currently second in the NL East with a 25-27 record. That mark has them 9.5 games behind first place, so Atlanta is already under pressure to begin making up ground. The Rockies have had a similarly poor season. No one expected Colorado to be good, and they certainly haven't surprised anyone with a 23-28 record and last place in their division. Despite all of that, this should be a fun matchup. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Here are the Braves-Rockies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Rockies Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-111)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-108)
Over: 11.5 (-102)
Under: 11.5 (-120)
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Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Braves have been one of the better offensive teams in the league, and that should come in handy in this game. They'll face Rockies starter Chad Kuhl, a pitcher they have plenty of advantages over. Kuhl gives up a 41.1% hard-hit percentage, a number that is far below average. The majority of the hitters in the Atlanta lineup sport an above-average hard-hit percentage, making this a tough matchup for Kuhl, especially since it's in Coors Field. Kuhl also gives up a high exit velocity, so there should be plenty of well-hit balls throughout this game for the Braves.
Pitcher Max Fried will take the mound for the Braves here. Fried has been one of the better pitchers on the Atlanta roster, earning a 3.10 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Both of those numbers improve over Fried's last seven starts, so it's clear that he's on a bit of a hot streak. The lefty has earned those numbers against elite competitions, as he's put together elite showings against the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, and the Milwaukee Brewers. He's used to the level of competition the Rockies will provide, and that should help in this game.
Why The Rockies Could Cover The Spread
The Rockies have been surprisingly good on offense this season. Colorado ranks inside the top ten in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS, making them one of the few teams in the league to do so. They also match up well with Fried, as they hit left-handed pitching significantly better than they hit righties, as they see a rise in nearly every single major batting stat when they play against southpaws.
Home-field advantage should help the Rockies out quite a bit. Colorado hits significantly better when they play at home, earning a .286 batting average in Coors Field compared to .242 batting average anywhere else. The Braves have similar batting splits, as they see all of their major batting numbers drop when they play away from home. Some of Kuhl's numbers are also better when he pitches in Coors Field, including a better WHIP and a lower allowed batting average.
Final Braves-Rockies Prediction & Pick
The Braves are the right pick here. They have the pitching advantage and they should be able to hit fairly well in this game. Lock in Atlanta to cover in this one.
Final Braves-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-111)
