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It will be a sea of red as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ballpark on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Cardinals-Reds prediction and pick.
The Cardinals come into this matchup with a 50-44 record, trailing the Milwaukee Bucks by a 1/2 game in the NL Central. St. Louis is 7-9 in July, and 5-11 over its last 16 away games. Overall, the Cards are 21-24 on the road during the 2022 season.
The Reds enter this contest with a 34-57 record, good for last in the NL Central. Also, they are 8-8 this month. The Reds are 6-3 over their last nine games before the All-Star Break. They are also 18-28 in games played at the Great American Ballpark.
The Cardinals are 6-2 against the Reds this season. Additionally, they took two of three at the Great American Ballpark earlier this year, and are 8-7 in Cincinnati since the start of the 2020 season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cardinals-Reds odds:
MLB odds: Cardinals-Reds Odds
Cardinals: -1.5 (+102)
Reds: +1.5 (-122)
Over: 10 (-110)
Under: 10 (-110)
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Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright to the hill today. Wainwright is 6-7 with a 3.00 ERA. Recently, he tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and four walks. Wainwright had a complete game a couple of weeks ago. Alternatively, he is 0-2 with a 2.70 ERA over three starts in July, as the run support has not been strong for him. Wainwright is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA over nine road starts. Subsequently, he is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two starts against the Reds this year and 10-16 with a 5.29 ERA in 38 appearances against the Reds.
Paul Goldschmidt continues to reign offensively for the Cardinals. He is batting .330 with 20 home runs and 70 RBIs. Consequently, his road numbers are lower, as he is batting .298 with four home runs, 23 RBIs, and 26 runs. Goldschmidt enjoys playing the Reds, as he is batting .500 (7 for 14) with four RBIs and a run at the Great American Ballpark this year. Likewise, he is batting .317 with 13 home runs, 35 RBIs, and 32 runs in 48 career games in Cincinnati. Goldschmidt is batting .276 with one home run, five RBIs, and eight runs in July, so he will attempt to pick it up. The Cardinals rank eighth in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, sixth in runs, 14th in home runs, and 11th in slugging percentage.
St. Louis will cover the spread if Wainwright can overcome his past issues against the Reds. Thus, he must toss at least five innings and keep the damage at a minimum. The Cards also must do what they can to help him succeed. Goldschmidt and the offense must drive home runs for the Cardinals to succeed.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds will go with Graham Ashcraft on the hill today. Ashcraft is 4-2 with a 4.45 ERA. However, he is 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA over two July starts. Ashcraft tossed five innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on seven hits with three walks. He faced the Cardinals once this season, going 4 2/3 innings, while allowing four earned runs on nine hits, including a home run. Thus, Ashcraft will attempt to last longer into the game and not allow the Cards' bats to clobber him.
Brandon Drury is the best player on the Reds and represents their current and their future. He is batting .278 with 18 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 56 runs. Additionally, Drury is batting .295 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and eight runs in 16 games in July. He is batting .296 (8 for 27) in seven games again the Cardinals with two RBIs and three runs. Also, Drury is batting .250 (2 for 8) with one RBI in his two games against the Cards at the Great American Ballpark. He is batting 2.81 with three home runs, seven RBIs, and 12 runs over 18 games against the Cardinals in his career. Drury is 2 for 8 against Wainwright in his career, with one home run and two RBIs. The Reds are 18th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage, 18th in runs, 23rd in home runs, and 25th in slugging percentage.
The Reds will cover the spread if Ashcraft can deliver a better performance. Also, Cincinnati needs its offense to get to Wainwright like it's done in the past. The Reds need the bats to take over the game early to put the Cardinals on their heels.
Final Cardinals-Reds Prediction & Pick
The Cardinals are the superior team. However, the Reds know how to compete with them. There would be a better comfort picking the Cardinals if Miles Mikolas was on the mound. Instead, it is Wainwright, and you do not know what to expect from him. The Reds will cover the spread in this contest.
Final Cardinals-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds: +1.5 (-122)
