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The Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres will wrap up their brief two-game series on Wednesday afternoon in San Diego. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Guardians-Padres prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Cleveland Guardians have surged forward in August and now sit at 65-56, first place in the AL Central. Everything seems to be coming up in Cleveland lately, as unlikely hot streaks have combined with stellar pitching performances to put this team in playoff contention.
San Diego is 68-57, a distant second place in the NL West and third place in the NL Wild Card. Even with a bolstered roster thanks to a whirlwind trade deadline, San Diego is clinging to a playoff spot. Passing Los Angeles in the division is nearly impossible, but a Wild Card spot would go a long way for this fan base.
Here are the Guardians-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Padres Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-156)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+130)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland has long been known for the strength of its pitching. This season is no different. The team ranks in the top 10 in team ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, walks, WHIP, and opposing batting average. If you got exhausted just reading that, bear with me here. Cal Quantrill, with a 9-5 record and 3.77 ERA, is this afternoon's starting pitcher. Quantrill split time between the bullpen and rotation in his first three seasons but has made all 23 appearances as a starting pitcher this season. The Canadian right-hander ranks in the 78th percentile in chase rate, although San Diego is one of the most patient teams in the league. Quantrill walks just 6.6% of the batters he has faced, so he will live in and around the zone in this one.
Cleveland's bullpen ranks sixth in the league with a 3.26 ERA across 400 innings pitched. Trevor Stephan has pitched to a 2.44 ERA in 48 innings out of the ‘pen. Stephan was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees and has morphed himself into a reliable setup man with Cleveland. James Karinchak, a resident madman, has returned from his injury to pitch 20 innings, with a lowly 1.35 ERA. Karinchak has punched out 36 batters in those 20 innings. The hard-throwing righty has yet to surrender a barrel to opposing hitters this year. Closer Emmanuel Clase has pitched to a 1.20 ERA with 29 saves this season.
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Cleveland has also found their groove at the plate this season. Despite hitting just 96 home runs, the second-lowest team total, Cleveland has scored 524 runs, middle of the pack across the league. With a .251 batting average and the lowest strikeout total in the league, Cleveland relies on their contact and gap-to-gap power for an offensive output. Jose Ramirez has dominated this season, bashing 23 home runs, 37 doubles, and 100 RBI. Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor have exploded, with 15 home runs each and 38 doubles combined. The aforementioned trio form the base of Cleveland's offense. Steven Kwan, drafted for his contact ability, has lived up to that prospect hype in his rookie season, hitting .299 with 18 doubles and more walks than strikeouts.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego will send one of the best left-handers to the mound in this one. Blake Snell, despite missing about a month due to injury, has pitched to a 3.76 ERA in his 16 starts, striking out 112 batters in 83.2 innings. Take a look at Snell's Baseball Savant page, and you will find him near the top of many pitching leaderboards. The hard-thrower has struck out 31.3% of his batters, ranking in the 90th percentile. Snell's curveball and slider have held batters to below a .200 batting average on both, surrendering just five extra-base hits. With a 3.69 bullpen ERA, San Diego has an average bullpen group.
Josh Hader has navigated some personal issues since coming over from Milwaukee, but should quickly regain his form. Nick Martinez has moved to the bullpen, filling in with some part-time duties as closer. Martinez has a 0.51 ERA in his last 15 games and a 1.43 ERA in his 21 relief appearances. Robert Suarez has pitched to a 2.59 ERA in 29 appearances, striking out 37 batters across 31.1 innings.
San Diego was without their star Juan Soto last night due to back tightness, which he hopes will not keep him out long. Josh Bell, also acquired in the Soto deal, has not exactly lived up to the prospect haul. Manny Machado has been the most consistent aspect of the lineup all season, with 22 home runs, 31 doubles, 76 RBI, and a .300 batting average, all of which lead the team. Machado has picked up the slack in the absence of suspended Fernando Tatis, Jr. San Diego ranks third with 453 walks and tied for 11th with 215 doubles.
Final Guardians-Padres Prediction & Pick
Give the nod here to Snell and his track record.
Final Guardians-Padres Prediction & Pick: San Diego -1.5 (+130), under 7.5 (-115)
