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Two of the top teams in the National League face off once again Friday night! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Brewers prediction and pick.
The San Diego Padres are struggling at the moment as they have lost four straight games. The Padres got swept by the St. Louis Cardinals to begin the week and now blew a three-run 9th inning in last night's game. NL saves leader Taylor Rogers struggled in the final inning and allowed four runs without even getting an out. The Milwaukee Brewers are finding ways to win games, and now have their ace on the mound tonight. This pitching matchup tonight is a battle between two of the NL Cy Young favorites.
Here are the Padres-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Brewers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-176)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 6.5 (-118)
Under: 6.5 (-104)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
On the mound for the Friars will be right-hander Joe Musgrove. The San Diego native is putting on a pitching showcase this season with a 1.86 ERA in 58 innings pitched. His (5-0) record should be six as the Padres blew a lead in his last start, forcing a no-decision. Either way, Musgrove has found his place in his hometown and even pitches well on the road. Three of his wins come on the road but the home/away numbers are similar.
Last night turned into a disaster for the Padres. After taking a 4-1 lead into the ninth with the top closer in the NL, something happened to where Rogers was unable to record an out. Rogers rocked two batters in a row which led to the game-tying triple from former Padre Jace Peterson. Andrew McCutchen then singled to win the game and Rogers had his second blown save in his last three games.
The Padres offense needs to step up. Manny Machado is doing his thing batting .346, but they have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last few weeks and the low run-support backs that up. The Padres have not scored more than four runs in a game since May 22 when they swept the San Francisco Giants. Going against a very good pitcher tonight, the Padres might struggle once again.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers have a great chance of covering this spread tonight, despite going against an elite pitcher. Corbin Burnes is on the bump for the Brewers and you know what that means. He's once again unhittable this season with a1.95 ERA in 64.2 innings pitched. The Padres found a way to score in the first inning against him in their previous meeting a few weeks back. However, Burnes went on to pitch five straight scoreless innings and Milwaukee won 4-1.
Make no mistake, this pitching matchup is going to be one of the best of the season. The Brewers lineup is a little banged up at the moment without Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames. Mike Brosseau and Omar Narvaez are currently day-to-day so we will see if they return this series. We are all aware the Friars are without star Fernando Tatis Jr., but Wil Myers is a little banged up for them as well. With some of the best hitters out tonight, this could be a low-scoring affair.
The Brewers will need to force Musgrove to run up his pitch count and make the bullpen come in early. If that happens, then the Brewers should have no problem getting some runs as the Padres bullpen has been awful this season.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick
I like the Brewers in this game. They found a way to win last night and the Padres offense should struggle once again against Burnes. I would consider taking the under as well, but at 6.5 it might be risky. Besides last night, these matchups have been low-scoring.
Final Padres-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+146)
